US November non-farm payrolls +227K vs +200K expected

• Prior was +12K
• Two-month net revision: +56K vs -112K
• Unemployment rate: 4.2% vs 4.2% expected (though some wires had the consensus at 4.1%)
• Unrounded unemployment rate: 4.215% vs 4.145% prior
• Participation rate: 62.5% vs 62.6% prior
• Private payrolls +194K vs +200K expected
• Prior private payrolls +36K (revised from +12K)
• U6 underemployment rate: 7.8% vs 7.7% prior
• Average hourly earnings: +0.4% vs +0.3% expected
• Prior avg hourly earnings: +0.4%
• Average hourly earnings y/y: 4.0% vs 4.0% prior
• Average weekly hours: 34.3 vs 34.3 prior
• Change in manufacturing payrolls: +22K vs -46K prior
• Government jobs: +33K vs +40K prior
• Full time: -355K vs -164K prior
• Part time: +23K vs -227K prior
• Household survey -355K

The odds of a rate cut in December rose to 87% from 70% on the jobs data. In turn, the US dollar has dipped lower across the board.

The rise in unemployment is the real story here as some spots had the consensus at 4.1% and looking at the unrounded figure, it wasn’t close. Moreover, there was a 0.1 pp decline in the participation rate, which would have lowered unemployment, all else equal. If you factor that in, this looks more like 4.3%.

The euro traded to a three-week high of 1.0626 after the data while USD/JPY fell about 40 pips to 150.10.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.