JP Morgan say ECB to cut by 25bp, but ‘door not shut’ on 50 – Goldman Sachs see 25bp cut

The final European Central Bank rate cut for 2024 is expected today, Thursday, December 12, 2024.

• 1315 GMT is 0815 US Eastern time

European Central Bank President Lagarde follows up with her press conference a half hour later

JP Morgan preview the meeting:

• ECB appears to be heading for a 25bp cut, possibly combined with a dovish, but not very meaningful, shift in guidance
• At the same time, speakers have not shut the door on a 50bp cut completely, and President Lagarde’s prepared statement for the European Parliament was dovish
• Combining all of this with the US election outcome, we think that the outlook has changed materially. The balance of risks has shifted to weaker growth and weaker inflation. Inflation could be bumped up modestly if retaliatory tariffs are imposed on a US move and if the currency depreciates a lot

Goldman Sachs:

• Faced with subdued growth and inflation converging to target, our baseline remains that the Governing Council will lower rates with sequential 25bp steps to 1.75% in July, slightly below our estimated range for the neutral rate.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.