Japan preliminary December Manufacturing PMI 49.5 (prior 49.0) Services 51.4 (prior 50.5)

Manufacturing now in contraction for 6 straight months.

Flash Manufacturing December:
49.4

• November Final 49.2

Services:
51.4

• November Final 50.5

Composite: 50.8 … Strongest rise in private sector activity for three months

• November Final 50.1

In summary from today’s report:

• Overall Business Activity:

  • Private sector activity expanded marginally, the fastest pace since September.
  • Growth driven by the services sector, while manufacturing output contracted for the fourth consecutive month.

• Demand Trends:

  • Services sector: Strongest rise in new business in four months.
  • Manufacturing sector: Stronger reduction in new orders.

• Inflation Pressures:

  • Input prices rose sharply, at the fastest rate in four months, driven by the weak yen increasing costs for imported goods.
  • Selling price inflation also accelerated, reaching its highest level since May.

• Business Confidence:

  • Optimism remained above average but eased to the second-lowest level in over three years.
  • Concerns centered on labor supply shortages and the impact of high inflation on activity.

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Japan’s manufacturing sector has experienced a consistent contraction over the previous three months, as indicated by the Jibun Bank / S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI):

• September 2024: The PMI stood at 49.7, signaling a contraction in manufacturing activity.

• October 2024: The PMI declined to 49.2, marking the sharpest deterioration in the sector’s health in three months. This downturn was attributed to renewed declines in investment goods and softer falls in intermediate goods, with consumer goods experiencing broadly stagnant conditions.

• November 2024: The PMI further decreased to 49.0, the lowest level since March, indicating a modest yet stronger contraction. This decline was driven by sustained reductions in new orders and output, with subdued demand from both domestic and international markets. Notably, firms reduced employment levels for the first time since February, and backlogs of work fell significantly.

These figures reflected ongoing challenges in Japan’s manufacturing sector, including weak demand in key industries such as semiconductors and automobiles, as well as persistent cost pressures from labor, logistics, and raw materials. Despite these challenges, manufacturers have maintained a degree of optimism about future business prospects, supported by expectations of new product launches and a broader economic recovery.

For Japan’s Services PMI over the past three months:

• September 2024: The Services PMI was at 53.1, indicating solid expansion in the services sector.

• October 2024: The index declined to 49.7, signaling a contraction—the first since June. This downturn was attributed to slower sales and a renewed decline in export orders. Business confidence also dropped to a 31-month low.

• November 2024: The Services PMI rebounded to 50.5, reflecting a modest expansion. This improvement was driven by increased new business and employment, with outstanding business growing at the fastest rate in eight months. However, inflationary pressures persisted due to higher costs in fuel, labor, and logistics.

These fluctuations highlight the services sector’s sensitivity to domestic and international demand, as well as cost pressures impacting business sentiment and activity levels.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.