China November: Retail sales +3.0% y/y (exp +4.6%) Industrial output +5.4% y/y (exp +5.3%)

Key Chinese economic data for November 2024 … in so far as retail sales is indicative of domestic demand the data … well, sucks.

China Retail Sales in November +3.0% y/y

• expected +4.6%, prior +4.8%

Industrial Production +5.4% y/y, improving from October … attributed to stimulus measures … but given borderline CPI deflation and lacklustre domestic demand stimulus aimed at increased production seems less than ideal (more productions into weak demand will tend to weaken price growth further)

• expected +5.4%, prior +5.3%

Fixed Asset Investment +3.3% y/y

• expected +3.5%, prior +3.4%

Unemployment Rate 5.0%

• expected 5.0%, prior +5.0%

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Background to this, as posted earlier.

In October 2024, China’s key economic indicators presented a mixed picture:

• Retail Sales: Increased by 4.8% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in September, marking the fastest growth since February. This surge was attributed to consumer spending during the Golden Week holiday and the Singles’ Day shopping festival.

• Industrial Production: Grew by 5.3% year-on-year, slightly below September’s 5.4% and missing the anticipated 5.6% rise. This indicated a modest slowdown in manufacturing output.

• Fixed Asset Investment: Rose by 3.4% in the January-October period compared to the same period in 2023, consistent with the growth rate from January to September but slightly below the expected 3.5%. This suggests steady but subdued investment in infrastructure and property sectors.

These figures highlighted the challenges facing China’s economy, which include

• a sluggish property market (still sluggish: China House Prices in November -5.7% y/y (prior -5.9%))
• and potential external pressures from international trade policies.

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Earlier from China today:

• China’s long-term yields hit record lows in early trade on Monday

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This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.