Rate cuts by year-end
- Fed: 24 bps (94% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 75 bps
- ECB 2025: 111 bps (86% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- BoE: 4 bps (83% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 73 bps
- BoC 2025: 56 bps (63% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- RBA 2025: 72 bps (54% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- RBNZ 2025: 105 bps (75% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- SNB 2025: 50 bps (82% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
Rate hikes by year-end
- BoJ: 5 bps (80% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 44 bps
*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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