UK December Nationwide house prices +0.7% vs +0.1% m/m expected

• Prior +1.2%

That’s a strong end to the year for UK house prices, with the annual gain for 2024 seen at 4.7% compared to the same period a year ago. The average price of a UK dwelling is now estimated at £269,426. Looking to this year, Nationwide notes that:

“Upcoming changes to stamp duty are likely to generate volatility, as buyers bring forward their purchases to avoid the additional tax. This will lead to a jump in transactions in the first three months of 2025 (especially in March) and a corresponding period of weakness in the following three to six months, as occurred in the wake of previous stamp duty changes. This will make it more difficult to discern the underlying strength of the market.

“But, providing the economy continues to recover steadily, as we expect, the underlying pace of housing market activity is likely to continue to strengthen gradually as affordability constraints ease through a combination of modestly lower interest rates and earnings outpacing house price growth. The latter is likely to return to the 2-4% range in 2025 once stamp duty related volatility subsides.”

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.