Is the ECB behind the curve on cutting interest rates?

Of the 72 economists in the Eurozone surveyed, roughly 46% are of the opinion that the ECB is “behind the curve” when it comes to cutting interest rates. Meanwhile, around 43% of economists are of the opinion that the ECB is on the right path. The remaining 11% are undecided. Here is the full poll results:

It’s almost a fair divide, though I would argue that it does show concern when the view is this much split in the first place. If anything, it shows that there is a significant chunk of market watchers believing that the ECB has been too slow in their approach. That comes amid a potential risk of inflation undershooting and/or the economy weakening much more significantly this year.

As for when the ECB will meet the end of their rate cut cycle, the majority of economists (~46%) expect the central bank to stop cutting rates in 2H 2025. Meanwhile, ~21% expect the ECB to stop cutting rates in Q2 2025 and ~19% expect the ECB to stop cutting rates only after this year.

You can check out the full survey results here (may be gated).

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.