- Will support further cuts in 2025 but pace will depend on inflation progress.
- Inflation will continue to make progress towards 2%.
- Base effects will improve inflation in 2025.
- Recent monthly and short-term data indicates improvement to come.
- Although the recent inflation progress has been slow, much of that is due to imputed prices for housing and non-market services that are less reliable guide to underlying price pressures.
- Geopolitical conflicts and tariffs could be a source of renewed price pressure.
- The economy is overall on a solid footing, nothing suggests labour market will weaken dramatically in coming months.
- Central bankers have a broad set of challanges ahead, from aging populations to geopolitical conflicts and challanges to globalization.
- Do not expect tariffs to produce persistent inflation and thus are not likely to influence views on appropriate monetary policy.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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