New York Fed: Year ahead inflation expectations unchanged at 3% in December

• NY Fed: Year-ahead expected inflation unchanged at 3% in December. UNCHNANGED
• December three-year-ahead expected inflation at 3% vs. 2.6% in November. HIGHER
• Five-year-ahead expected inflation at 2.7% in December vs. 2.9% in November. LOWER
• Expected home price rise at 3.1% in December vs. 3% in November. MODESTLY HIGHER
• December year-ahead expected food prices increased.
• December year-ahead expected gas price down, lowest since September 2022.
• Expected future income and earnings declined in December.
• Households’ view on personal financial situation improved in December.
• Chance of missing debt payment in December matches September 2024, April 2020 level.

Major views

• Median inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.0 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon, increased to 3.0 percent from 2.6 percent at the three-year-ahead horizon, and declined to 2.7 percent from 2.9 percent at the five-year-ahead horizon.
• The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months declined by 1.6 percentage points to 11.9 percent. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next twelve months also declined by 2.0 percentage points to 18.2 percent. Both readings are the lowest since January 2024.
• The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost declined sharply to 50.2 percent from 54.1 percent in November, the lowest reading since April 2021

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.