ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: China Q4 & December economic data show solid gains

• European Central Bank speakers Friday include Escriva and Cipollone
• China’s population fell in 2024 for the third straight year
• China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) says domestic demand is insufficient
• China property developer Vanke shares plunged – report chief executive has been detained
• Yuan strengthens after the Chinese data came in strong
• UOB on what to watch for a USD/JPY move to 151.80
• Japan fin min Kato says its up to the BoJ to decide monetary policy
• China December: Retail sales +3.7% y/y (exp +3.5%) Industrial output +6.2% y/y (exp +5.4%)
• China data due today – expected to meet 2024 GDP target, “but U.S. tariff risks loom”
• China new home prices flat at 0% m/m in December (prior -0.1%)
• Heads up for a US holiday on Monday, January 20 – stock and bond markets closed
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1889 (vs. estimate at 7.3275)
• Singapore Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX) December 2024: +1.7% m/m vs. -1.2% expected
• Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal officially signed – but still awaits government vote
• Chinese economists forecast 2025 economic growth at a minimum of 4.8%
• Trump plans to make cryptocurrency a “National Priority” policy upon his inauguration
• US Treasury Secretary Yellen’s computer was infiltrated by Chinese state-sponsored hackers
• Westpac on the Australia dollar: “The exchange rate and the big pivot”
• TD remains bullish on the USD
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 16 Jan: Feds Waller more dovish. Retail sales solid.
• Wells Fargo revises Fed rate cut forecast amid labor market resilience
• New Zealand December Manufacturing PMI 45.9 (prior 45.5)
• A down day for the major US indices
• Trade ideas thread – Friday, 17 January, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

China
Q4 economic growth data surpassed expectations, coming in at 5.4%
y/y, the largest gain in 6 quarters, and cementing a 5% for 2024. 5%
is bang on target. There is often scepticism about the veracity of
Chinese economic data and after continuing struggle all year to
stimulate growth for the GDP to come in on target does have a whiff
of suspicion about it. Anyway, the yuan gained after the data.

For
December we had very solid beats for retail sales and industrial
output data.

As
a side note, China posted record production in 2024 for commodities
including coal, gas and aluminium.

In
property sector news there are reports that the CEO of China Vanke (a
prominent property develop) has been detained by authorities. Vanke
shares and debt plunged.

There
was little news otherwise. Negotiators have reached an agreement on a
cease-fire in Gaza, the Israeli parliament will vote on it on
Saturday.

USD/JPY
dipped to 155.00 but has since bounced back to be near the high of
its session range as I update. Other major FX was subdued.

ICYMI – it’s a Monday holiday coming up in the US. I’ve a post above on which markets are closed (stocks and bonds!) and the reduced hours for CME futures trade. Enjoy MLK Day.

Also, for the AUD traders, check out that WPAC post I have linked above. Good stuff from ex-central bank insider.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.