Not Manchester City: Premier League side favored to lift Champions League ahead of Real Madrid and Barcelona – but below Liverpool

While perennial powerhouses like Real Madrid, Barcelona, Liverpool and Manchester City remain in the mix, another English Premier League team has overtaken even Madrid and Barca in statistical predictions.

As the Champions League’s revamped format approaches its penultimate matchday, a surprise contender has emerged as one of the favorites to lift the trophy. While perennial powerhouses like Real Madrid, Barcelona, Liverpool and Manchester City remain in the mix, another English Premier League team has overtaken even Madrid and Barca in statistical predictions.

This unexpected frontrunner isn’t Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City. Instead, it’s another team making waves in Europe with a blend of dynamic performances and tactical discipline.

According to Opta, the English club Arsenal ranks third among the favorites to win the Champions League this season, surpassing Spanish giants Real Madrid and Barcelona. The Gunners hold a 14.1% chance of winning the title, trailing only Liverpool (20.7%) and Inter (18%), as per the data.

This ranking is remarkable given Arsenal’s recent return to the Champions League after years of absence. Their resurgence under manager Mikel Arteta has revitalized the team, positioning them as serious contenders. Opta‘s calculations for other major teams put Barcelona fourth with 6.7% and Real Madrid fifth with 6.2%.

Liverpool leads pack

Liverpool has emerged as the clear favorite, boasting a 20.7% probability of winning the Champions League. Under manager Arne Slot, the Reds have maintained an impeccable European record this season, winning all five of their matches despite a challenging schedule that included AC Milan, Bayer Leverkusen, and Real Madrid.

The standout performances of Mohamed Salah, who has been in electrifying form, have been pivotal. Salah, reportedly in his final season with Liverpool, aims to leave the club on a high note. “This season means everything to me. I want to leave a legacy of titles and memories,” Salah was quoted as saying.

Inter: Strong contenders?

Inter also ranks above Arsenal in the odds, with an 18% chance of winning the Champions League. The Italian side has been defensively solid, boasting five clean sheets in their five matches. Their victories over Arsenal, Red Star Belgrade, and RB Leipzig highlight their dominance in the new league-phase format.

Opta gives Inter a 51.3% chance of reaching the final and a 14.9% chance of lifting the trophy.

Arsenal’s European resurgence

Arsenal’s place among the top contenders marks a significant achievement for a club that has rebuilt itself into a formidable force. Their performances in the league phase have showcased tactical acumen and attacking prowess.

The Gunners’ resurgence aligns with their domestic form, where they currently sit second in the Premier League, six points behind Liverpool. Arsenal’s ability to surpass both Barcelona and Real Madrid in the Champions League odds speaks to their growth and adaptability under Arteta.