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Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 48 bps (80% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • ECB: 93 bps (94% probability of rate cut at today’s decision)
  • BoE: 71 bps (85% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoC: 40 bps (64% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBA: 86 bps (74% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBNZ: 105 bps (73% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • SNB: 34 bps (76% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 27 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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