MUFG: Further JPY outperformance ahead as BOJ signals more rate hikes

MUFG sees more upside for the JPY as the BoJ continues to deliver hawkish policy signals. Deputy Governor Himino’s speech reinforced expectations of two more rate hikes this year, pushing USD/JPY lower toward 154.00.

Key Points:

1. BoJ Hawkish Signals:

   • Himino stated that policy rates need to rise further if the BoJ’s economic outlook is realized.
   • Emphasized that real rates remain significantly negative, even after the recent rate hike.
   • Noted that it is “not normal” for real interest rates to stay clearly negative if deflationary shocks are resolved.

2. Market Reaction:

   • JPY strengthened, leading to USD/JPY falling closer to 154.00.
   • Reinforces growing expectations that the BoJ could hike rates twice more in 2025, bringing the policy rate to 1.00%.

Conclusion:

With the BoJ maintaining a hawkish stance, JPY outperformance is expected to continue, putting further downside pressure on USD/JPY as markets price in additional rate hikes.

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This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.