Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 7 Feb: US jobs remains solid.Inflation expectations rise

• Major US stock indices close sharply lower.
• US consumer credit for December $40.85B vs $12.35B estimate
• Details of the joint statement from Pres. Trump and Japan PM Ishiba
• Crude oil futures settled at $71 a barrel
• Trump: Japan to double defense spending by 2027. US committed to the defense of Japan
• Ukraine Zelenskiy to Trump: “Let’s do a deal” but stresses the need for secuity guarantees
• Reuters: Canada PM Trudeau says Pres Trump talk about absorbing Canada is real
• More from Fed’s Kugler: Stable labor market gives the Fed time to make decisions
• EU to offer lower tariffs on US car imports in effort to make a deal with Trump
• Trump: We do want to work on the deficit with Japan. Want to get it down to even
• A best guess on what’s really happening with the Trump reciprocal tariff headlines
• Fed’s Kugler: Jan jobs report shows US labor market is healthy
• Bill Ackman reveals a position in Uber. Why he is buying shares
• What key earnings releases are scheduled for the week starting Feb 10
• Hassett says Trump wants reciprocity in taxes, cites Europe’s VAT as a tax on US companies
• Trump told Republicans he plans to issue reciprocal tariffs as soon as Friday – report
• Fed’s Goolsbee: What’s happening in long-term rates is more the Treasury’s purview
• US February prelim UMich consumer sentiment 67.8 vs 71.1 expected
• New US Energy Secretary downplays the risk of tariffs on oil imports
• The FX market is disagreeing with the fixed income market today
• Trump will meet with Japan PM Ishiba today. What to watch for
• Fed’s Kashkari: The market may be taking the signal that the neutral rate is higher
• Canada January employment change 76.0K vs 25.0K estimate
• US January non-farm payrolls +143K vs +170K expected
• BOE’s Pill: There is an ongoing disinflation process in the UK
• ECB’s Vujčić: Market bets on three rate cuts are not unreasonable
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar steady awaiting US jobs report

It was Jobs Friday in North America with both the US and Canada releasing there January employment reports. For the US, the January non farm jobs for the month came in weaker than expected, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 143K compared to the 170K expected. However, there were positive revisions to the previous two months, adding +100K jobs.

Key highlights include:

• Unemployment rate: Fell to 4.0% (vs. 4.1% expected).
• Participation rate: Improved to 62.6% (vs. 62.5% prior).
• Average hourly earnings: Stronger at +0.5% m/m (vs. +0.3% expected) and +4.1% y/y (vs. +3.8% expected).
• Private payrolls: Added 111K (vs. 141K expected).
• Manufacturing payrolls: Beat expectations, rising +3K (vs. -2K expected).
• Full-time jobs: A strong increase of +234K.
• Average weekly hours: Declined to 34.1 (vs. 34.3 expected).
• Benchmark revision for 2024: Revised down by -589K (better than the -675K expected).

In summary, while headline payrolls disappointed, the decline in the unemployment rate, upward revisions, and strong wage growth offset some of the weakness. The report presents mixed signals, but it leans positive overall indicative of a solid jobs market.

Meanwhile, the Canada jobs report for January significantly outperformed expectations, with employment rising by 76K (vs. 25K estimate), marking the third consecutive monthly gain after December’s revised increase of +91K and November’s +44K.

• Employment Change: +76K (vs. +25K expected), third consecutive monthly gain after December’s revised +91K and November’s +44K.
• Unemployment Rate: Fell to 6.6% (vs. 6.8% expected, 6.7% prior).
• Participation Rate: Increased to 65.5% (from 65.1% last month).
• Full-Time Employment: +35.2K (vs. revised +171.8K in December).
• Part-Time Employment: +40.9K (vs. revised +7.1K in December).
• Wage Growth: Average hourly wages up +3.5% YoY, the slowest since April 2022:
  • Permanent employees: +3.7% YoY.
  • Temporary employees: +2.5% YoY.
• Sector Highlights:
  • Manufacturing: +33K (+1.8%).
  • Professional, Scientific & Technical Services: +22K (+1.1%).
  • Construction: +19K (+1.2%).
  • Accommodation & Food Services: +15K (+1.3%).
  • Transportation & Warehousing: +13K (+1.2%).
  • Agriculture: +10K (+4.4%).
  • Other Services: -14K (-1.8%).
• Private Sector Jobs: +57K (+0.4%) in January; +215K (+1.6%) YoY.
• Public Sector Jobs: Little changed in January; +107K (+2.4%) YoY.
• Self-Employment: +27K (+1.0%) in January; +94K (+3.6%) YoY.

This report reflects a broad-based strengthening of Canada’s labor market with robust gains across sectors.

Later at 10 AM, the Univ. of Michigan consumer sentiment numbers were released and showed weakness in the overall index, the current and the expectations. In addition, the 1 year inflation expectation showed a sharp move higher to 4.3% from 3.3%. That was the highest reading since 4.4% in November 2023.

• Consumer Sentiment Index: Fell to 67.8 (vs. 71.1 expected), the lowest since July 2024; prior was 71.1.
• Current Conditions: Dropped to 68.7 (vs. 73.0 expected).
• Expectations Index: Declined to 67.3 (vs. 70.0 expected).
• Inflation Expectations (1-year): Rose sharply to 4.3% (vs. 3.3% prior), the highest since November 2023.
• Inflation Expectations (5-year): Increased slightly to 3.3% (vs. 3.2% prior), signaling stable long-term expectations.
• Broad Sentiment Decline: Declines were observed across Republicans, Independents, and Democrats, reflecting pervasive concerns.
• Key Concern: Many consumers worry that high inflation will return within the next year, influenced by recent tariff fears.
• Timing of Survey: Interviews concluded on February 4, just after the latest round of tariff disputes ended, potentially impacting sentiment.
• Implication: Will the White House ease tariff-related rhetoric? Later we learned that recipricol tariffs would be announced next week.

In addition to the economic news, Pres Trump and Japan PM Ishiba met in Washington for the first time. President Trump highlighted several key initiatives during the discussions.

• He emphasized plans to double U.S. defense spending by 2027 and announced the approval of $1 billion in foreign military sales to Japan.
• On energy, he discussed the new shipments of American liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Japan and stressed the need to reduce the U.S.-Japan trade deficit, suggesting that it could be achieved through increased oil and gas exports.
• Trump also mentioned new auto plants opening by Japan in the US and a potential investment by Nippon Steel in U.S. Steel versus the purchase of the company.
• He underscored the importance of staying on the cutting edge of artificial intelligence and strengthening the U.S. military to be the strongest globally.
• Trump expressed excitement about talks with Ishiba regarding a potential pipeline project in Alaska.

During the press conference,

• He also announced upcoming discussions on reciprocal tariffs, with an announcement or news conference expected early next week.

Prime Minister Ishiba

• Described the U.S.-Japan relationship as entering a “Golden Age” and reaffirmed Japan’s commitment to strengthening bilateral ties.
• He confirmed Japan’s plans to increase LNG imports from the U.S. and expressed interest in purchasing ethanol and ammonia.
• On defense, Ishiba stressed Japan’s responsibility to enhance its own capabilities while collaborating with the U.S. toward the denuclearization of North Korea.
• He also supported the idea of mutually beneficial tariffs and highlighted a $1 trillion Japanese investment in the U.S., noting its benefits for both nations.
• Ishiba clarified that Nippon Steel’s investment in U.S. Steel was not an acquisition but a significant financial commitment.

In the markets, the USD was mostly higher with the largest USD gains vs the CHF (+0.54%) and the EUR (+0.52%). The greenback did fall modestly vs the JPY (-0.03%) and the CAD after their strong job report too (-0.14%).

For the week, the USD moved sharply higher at the start of the week on the Canada and Mexico tariff news. Those tariffs got a reprieve for 30 days, and the USD moved lower. How did the dollar do vs the major currencies for the week?

The USD was mostly lower vs. the major currencies with the exception of the EUR. The greeback was the weakest vs the JPY (-2.44%) and the JPY (-1.57%). :

• EUR, +0.27%
• JPY, -2.447%
• GBP, -0.07%
• CHF, -0.14%
• CAD, -1.57%
• AUD, -0.88%
• NZD, -0.47%

US major indices were lower today on the concerns of tariffs and inflation. The declines took the indices down -1% to -1.30% and tilted the weekly changes to the negative.

For the trading day:

• Dow industrial average -444.23 points, or -0.90% at 44303.40
• S&P index -57.58 points or -0.95% at 6025.99
• NASDAQ index -268.59 points or -1.36% at 19523.40
• Russell 2000-27.41 points or -1.19% at 2279.70

For the trading week, the declines today turn the major indices lower for the second consecutive week:

• Dow industrial average fell -0.54%
• S&P -0.24%
• NASDAQ index -0.53%
• Russell 2000-0.35%

In the US debt market today, yields moved higher:

• 2 year 4.291%, +8.3 basis points
• 5-year 4.346%, +7.4 basis points
• 10 year 4.494%, +5.7 basis points
• 30 year 4.693%, +4.7 basis points

For the trading week, however, the yield curve flattened with the 2-year up 8.4 basis points, while the 10 year decreased -4.8 basis points

• 2-year, +8.4 basis points
• 5-year, +1.4 basis points
• 10 year, -4.8 basis points
• 30 year, -10.1 basis points basis points

Looking at the yield curve spreads:

• The 2-10 year spread flattened by -13.2 basis points to 20.4 basis points from 33.6 last week.
• The 2-30 year spread flattened by -18.4 basis points to 40.1 basis points from 58.7 last week

Thank you for your support. Wish you all a happy and healthy weekend.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.