Trafigura says US policy is the biggest upside risk for oil prices

Ben Luckock, head of oil trading at Trafigura Group spoke in a Bloomberg TV interview.

• biggest upside risk to
  crude prices in an otherwise well-supplied market is U.S. foreign
  policy toward Iran
• while U.S. trade relations with China are uncertain, Iran remains the
  key issue to watch.

• “Iran’s oil exports have surged in
  recent years, but the potential return of Donald Trump to the White
  House has created uncertainty”

• Trump’s
  previous “maximum pressure” policy on Tehran could see heightened
  pressure on the country again, and lead to market volatility if tensions
  escalate.

Despite these risks, global oil supply remains
stable, which may help cushion the impact of any potential
disruptions

Luckock
also pointed to potential shifts in global oil flows, suggesting the
U.S. could resume Russian oil imports before Europe if a deal over
Ukraine is reached. He highlighted the growing shadow fleet of around
1,000 tankers transporting oil for Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, a key
factor in global supply dynamics.

Weekly Brent candles … bottom of the range for the past few years here.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.