Tariff Confusion Leaves Markets Guessing

Tariff Confusion Leaves Markets Guessing: March 4th vs. April 2nd?

Traders and investors are bracing for uncertainty as conflicting signals from the White House fuel speculation about whether the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada will take effect as scheduled on March 4th, or if they will be pushed to April 2nd.

During recent remarks, President Trump repeatedly referenced April 2nd as an important date when asked about the tariff situation. However, Commerce Secretary Howard Mutnick later clarified that the existing pause on tariffs for Canada and Mexico remains in place, adding to the confusion.

The key issue? No executive order has been issued to officially delay the tariffs, meaning that—as of now—they are still set to take effect next Tuesday, March 4th unless the administration takes affirmative action to extend the pause.

Market Reaction: Peso Volatility and Trader Uncertainty

The Mexican peso (USD/MXN) is already reacting, with traders pricing in the possibility of a delay. The currency has been hovering around key resistance at 20.42, just below the 2019-2020 high of 20.91.

If the March 4th deadline passes without action, we could see significant moves:

• If tariffs are imposed → Expect a sharp peso selloff, pushing USD/MXN higher toward resistance levels and likely above the 20.96 mark, the two year high of years 2019 and 2020..
• If a delay is confirmed → Peso could strengthen as traders unwind risk-off positions. Expect USD/MXN to decline.
• Naturally, there are additional factors to weigh in but keep an eye of what Trump will really do… The market is now confused about that.

This policy uncertainty leaves businesses, investors, and traders in limbo. With less than a week until the March 4th deadline, markets are preparing for a volatile start to next week—but all eyes remain on whether an official announcement from the White House clarifies the situation.

For now, the tariffs are still set to take effect—until the administration says otherwise.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.