US initial jobless claims 242K versus 221K estimate

• Prior week initial jobless claims 219K revised to 220K
• Initial jobless claims 242K vs 221K estimate. Highest since the first week in October (the high at the start of the year was also at 242K)
• 4-week moving average for initial jobless claims 224.0 0K versus 215.5 K last week
• Prior week continuing claims 1.869M revised to 1.867M
• Continuing claims 1.862M vs 1.872M estimate
• 4-week moving average for continuing claims 1.865M vs 1.862M last week

The Initial claims equaled the highest level going back to October. Although at the highs for the year, it is one week. A multi week move here and higher would start to show a deterioration of the jobs picture (at least vs the rest of the year). DOGE cuts will be eyed, but it is probably too early for the impact from those layoffs in the big picture of things.

The continuing claims was a bit lower and is more sideways .

Looking at the markets.

Yields remain higher with 2 year up 3 bps at 4.100% and 10 year up 4.5 basis points.

Stocks are hoping to rebound today with futures implying:

• Dow up 87 point
• S&P up 34 points
• Nasdaq up 167 points

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.