Forexlive RSS Breaking News Feed

The deadline for Trump’s 25% tariffs on neighbours Mexico and Canada is barely an hour away, with no indication of any postponement this time. They are due to impact from 12.01 am US Eastern time on Tuesday, March 4, 2025.

Markets in Asia spent the day digesting the Monday news of Trump confirming that tariffs are on the way, and also that he was bumping up tariffs on imports from China to 20%.

• China’s Commerce Ministry said it would be taking retaliation steps against Trump’s fresh imposition of higher US import tariffs.
• Canada’s Prime Minister issued a statement outlining Canada’s reciprocal tariffs against Trumps’ tariffs.

Also in Trump’s Monday remarks were threats against China and Japan over currency devaluation/depreciation. The yen appreciated in Monday US trade on the comments, and that move followed through today here in the timezone. Both Japan finance minister Kato and PM Ishiba disputed Trump’s accusations. Over many years Japan has denied its ultra-loose monetary policy is aimed at weakening the currency, and that its instead aimed at combatting deflation and low inflation. The weak yen is just a side-effect. None of Japan’s G7 partners have publicly disputed Japan’s account. USD/JPY dropped to lows just under 148.70 before bouncing back above 149.00.

Major FX otherwise traded in small ranges only.

From Australia we had minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s February meeting, where the Bank cut its cash rate for the first time since November 2020. A key takeaway, for me, from the minutes was the unsurprising talk that the Bank would be taking a slow and cautious approach to rate cuts ahead, citing still present risks of inflation. FWIW I think the global economy, and the RBA in turn, will be swamped soon enough by the negative impacts of Trump’s imminent trade war and rate cuts may come ahead of the RBA’s current reckoning. By the way, Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Hauser is speaking again tomorrow, Wednesday, March 5, 2025 at 8.45 am Sydney time (2145 GMT / 1645 US Eastern time). We’ll likely get more from him to hint at the outlook.

The report says that China is planning to issue guidance to encourage the use of the RISC-V chips across the nation. The guidance is aimed at boosting the use of said chips and could be released later this month, though subject to change.

All of this will mean trying to push for more cost effective alternatives for Chinese AI models especially. That after seeing what has transpired with DeepSeek, running those models efficiently on less powerful and cheaper chips.

If anything, it’s a sign of further divergence in technology between the US and China as well. The biggest gainer from this announcement is Alibaba’s XuanTie arm, who is selling commercial RISC-V processors to chip designers.

Ishiba also adds that he has not had a phone call i.e. no official warning from Trump regarding foreign exchange policy as of yet.

• Japan is not pursuing a so-called currency devaluation policy
• Have had no phone call from Trump regarding FX policy

***

ICYMI over the past decade or so, Japanese authorities say super-loose monetary policy is in order to combat deflation and low inflation, the weak yen is just a side effect. Indeed, Japan has explained this time and again tothier G7 partners and none of them have publicly disagreed, including the US.

***

USD/JPY update:

For day traders, swing traders, and futures market participants, having a structured price level map for NASDAQ futures (NQ) is essential for navigating price action, managing risk, and identifying potential trade setups. These levels are widely monitored by institutional traders, market algorithms, and liquidity providers, making them high-probability reaction points.

This report does not provide trade recommendations but serves as a decision support tool, helping traders recognize potential inflection zones, liquidity clusters, and critical resistance or support levels.

By using these NASDAQ futures price levels, traders can better time entries, exits, and manage risk, whether they trade short-term scalps or longer-term positions.

Key Price Levels and Market Notes for NASDAQ Futures (NQ)

Current Market Position

• NASDAQ futures (NQ) are trading at 20,527 at the time of this analysis (March 4, 2025).
• Price is testing key resistance levels and appears to be grinding upward.

Resistance Levels in NASDAQ Futures – If Price Moves Higher

If NASDAQ futures continue to rise, the following resistance levels come into focus:

• $20,546 – $20,547 → Value Area Low of Friday, February 28

  • Significance:
    • This was the closing session of the previous month.
    • Crossing above $20,547 would mean re-entering Friday’s value area, which could lead to further upside movement.

• $20,629 – $20,666 → Seller Zone & Profit-Taking Area

  • This is a zone where selling pressure is expected.
  • Reasons:
    • Profit-taking by long positions.
    • Fresh short positions may enter the market.
  • Traders watching for reversals may consider short setups in this area at their own risk.

• $20,717 → Value Area High of Friday, February 28

  • If price reaches this level, watch for a reaction.
  • Significance:
    • A failure to break higher would indicate a return to a range-bound market.
    • A clean break above could push price toward the next set of resistance levels.

• $20,743 – $20,745 → Major Key Level from January 14

  • This area previously acted as a major support zone and is now likely to act as resistance.

• $20,770 → Point of Control (POC) from January 14

  • A critical level where institutional volume was concentrated.
  • If price reaches this level, expect increased participation from market makers.

• $20,792 → VWAP of March 3 (Yesterday’s VWAP)

  • A move to this level indicates bullish control in the short term.

• $20,900 → Key Inflection Zone & Bull-Bear Battle Level

  • Significance:
    • A confluence of multiple key levels, including:
      • Value Area High of February 18 & February 28.
      • Point of Control of March 3.
      • Value Area Low of February 29.
    • This is the level where bulls need to sustain above to gain longer-term control.
    • If price pierces above but fails to sustain, bears remain in control.

Implications:

• If NASDAQ futures break and hold above $20,900, bullish momentum could accelerate.
• If price rejects near this zone, sellers regain dominance.

Support Levels in NASDAQ Futures – If Price Moves Lower

If NASDAQ futures fail to sustain above resistance and begin declining, traders should watch these key support zones:

• $20,560 – $20,535 → First Major Support Cluster

  • Significance:
    • This tight support range aligns with key levels from early November.
    • Coincides with the Value Area High of November 1, 2024.

• $20,460 – $20,440 → VWAP Support from October 31 & November 1, 2024

  • Historical significance:
    • These dates marked the bottoming structure of the last major pivot low in the daily chart.
    • Institutional buyers previously defended this level, making it a strong area of interest.

• $20,370 → Point of Control from October 31

  • If price breaks below $20,440, this could be the next downside target.

• $20,230 → Value Area Low from October 31

  • A major support zone where buying activity may increase significantly.

How to Use This NASDAQ Futures Price Map

Use these key price levels as a decision support tool within your own trading, as well as taking partial profits, for example:

1. Swing Trading & Partial Profit-Taking Strategy

• Example Scenario:

  • A trader shorts NASDAQ futures at $20,643 – $20,665.
  • If price declines, potential profit-taking zones include:
    • $20,560 – $20,535 → Partial profit target.
    • $20,460 – $20,440 → Another profit-taking level.
    • $20,370 – $20,230 → Final major downside targets.

• Example for Long Trades:

  • If a trader buys a dip near $20,460, they might consider:
    • Selling a portion at $20,535.
    • Taking additional profits at $20,643.
    • Holding a portion for a potential breakout above $20,717.

2. Day Trading and Scalping in NASDAQ Futures

For short-term traders, using these levels as reaction points can help improve timing and execution.

• Scalpers might:

  • Short into resistance zones like $20,643 or $20,717 for quick 10-20 point trades.
  • Buy dips at support zones like $20,535 or $20,460 for a quick bounce.

• Breakout traders might:

  • Enter above $20,900 if price sustains for a momentum push higher.
  • Short below $20,440 if price loses key support.

3. Risk Management & Trade Adjustments

Using this map allows traders to adjust risk levels dynamically based on price action.

• If price moves toward $20,643 and no sellers appear, traders should:

  • Consider waiting until $20,717 for a better short entry.
  • If price clears $20,717, consider a stop-loss adjustment for shorts.

• If price breaks below $20,440 and holds, traders should:

  • Prepare for potential deeper downside movement toward $20,370 – $20,230.

Key Price Levels Recap for NASDAQ Futures (NQ)

Major Resistance Levels

• $20,546 – $20,547 → Value Area Low of February 28
• $20,629 – $20,666 → Selling Zone & Profit-Taking Area
• $20,717 → Value Area High of February 28
• $20,745 – $20,770 → Key Institutional Resistance Zone
• $20,900 → Bull-Bear Control Zone

Major Support Levels

• $20,560 – $20,535 → Initial support cluster
• $20,460 – $20,440 → VWAP Support from October 31
• $20,370 → Point of Control from October 31
• $20,230 → Value Area Low from October 31

Your NASDAQ Futures Price Guide

This report provides a structured price map for NASDAQ futures, giving traders an actionable framework for decision-making.

For live market updates and in-depth analysis, visit ForexLive.com.

Trade at Your Own Risk

This report is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Always conduct independent research and trade NASDAQ futures based on your strategy, risk tolerance, and financial objectives.

• CEO of Australia’s largest bank expects RBA rate cuts not coming until later in the year

Market analysts at the bank disagree, forecasting 25bp rate cuts in May, August and November.

more to come

Earlier today we had the minutes of the Bank’s February meeting, where it cut rates for the first time since late 2020:

• RBA rate cut in February – weight placed on downside risks to economy

CBA on what’s ahead:

• CEO of Australia’s largest bank expects RBA rate cuts not coming until later in the year

Yes, I can see their point, unless the global economy spirals down a trade-war induced black hole, of course, in which case earlier would be better.

Earlier:

• ECB to cut by 25bp this week – focus is on signalling what’s to come

ING have provided a handy ‘cheat sheet’:

The Bank’s statement is expected at 1315 GMT / 0815 US Eastern time on Thursday.

European Central Bank President Lagarde’s press conference will follow a half hour later.

• Australia’s easing cycle would be “slower and shallower” than what people had been expecting
• further rate cuts would not arrive until later in the year
• Australia “clearly not out of the woods” when it came to inflation
• further rate cuts would “hinge on [economic] data points”.

***

Was speaking at the Australian Financial Review Business Summit in Sydney.

• Canada will impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports from Tuesday if U.S. tariffs go into effect
• Canada will start with 25% tariffs on U.S. imports worth C$30 billion from Tuesday
• Should U.S. tariffs not cease, we are in active and ongoing discussions with provinces and territories to pursue several non-tariff measures.

***

Trump’s tariffs on Canada and Mexico are due at 12.01 am on Tuesday, March 4, 2025 US Eastern time.

More here:

• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US data sags, tariffs loom and OPEC+ pumps more

The move is expected as the ECB continues to adjust monetary policy amid evolving economic conditions, including trade tensions and increased defence spending. Investors will be closely watching the updated staff macroeconomic projections to assess how these factors are influencing the ECB’s outlook.

Markets will also look for signals from the Governing Council on whether monetary policy remains “restrictive” or if there is room for further easing. Additionally, there will be speculation about a possible pause in rate cuts in April, with officials potentially hinting at a temporary “skip” before resuming adjustments later in the year. The decision and accompanying commentary will be key in shaping expectations for the ECB’s policy trajectory in the months ahead.

European Central Bank President Lagarde

The outlook reflects long-held expectations of persistent demand for gold as a hedge against

• inflation,
• geopolitical uncertainty,
• and potential shifts in global monetary policy.

The investment bank’s bullish stance suggests that gold’s upward trajectory is likely to continue as investors seek safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainties.

With central banks increasing their gold reserves and market conditions favoring strong demand, J.P. Morgan anticipates further gains.

The previous close was 7.2880

PBoC injects 38.2bn yuan via 7-Day Reverse Repos at 1.5%

• 381.5bn mature today
• net drains 343.3bn yuan in Open Market Operations

• China’s Commerce Ministry on Tuesday reiterated its firm opposition to the US move to impose another 10% tariff on Chinese imports starting March 4.
• The ministry vowed to take “necessary countermeasures” to safeguard China’s legitimate rights and interests.
• The US disregarded facts, international trade rules, and the voices of various parties, and such move is a typical example of unilateralism and bullying, the Commerce Ministry spokesperson said.

Trump announced a higher tariff on China:

• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US data sags, tariffs loom and OPEC+ pumps more

In February, shop prices rebounded by 0.4% from the previous month

• reversing January’s decline
• food costs rose and seasonal discounts on electrical goods and furniture ended
• prices were still 0.7% lower year-on-year, unchanged from January

BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson warned that rising operational costs—including a nearly 7% increase in the minimum wage, packaging levies, and higher payroll taxes—could push prices further up.

With inflation already at 3.0% in January and the Bank of England forecasting 3.7% by Q3, concerns persist over how much these rising costs will impact consumer prices. Food inflation climbed to 2.1% in February, with staples such as butter, cheese, eggs, and bread seeing increases, and global coffee prices expected to drive further rises. The BRC estimates food inflation could exceed 4% by mid-year and has urged the government to take action to ease the cost burden on retailers.

UK PM and Fin Min

• rebounding from a 0.1% decline in December,
• the January increase, reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), was in line with analysts’ expectations.

On an annual basis, retail sales were up 3.8%

• ABS highlighting food-related spending as a key driver of the January increase.

The data suggests that consumer demand remains resilient, though broader economic conditions and future interest rate movements will likely influence spending patterns in the coming months.

• Board judged case to cut rates was, on balance, the stronger one
• Members placed more weight on the downside risks to the economy
• Particularly mindful of risk of keeping policy too tight for too long
• Board agreed decision did not commit them to further cuts in the cash rate
• Members expressed caution about the prospect of further easing
• If inflation proved persistent, rates might stay at 4.1% for an extended period or be raised
• Strongest argument for cutting rates was the slowdown in inflation and wages
• Considered whether there was more spare capacity in labour market than thought
• Risk employment in non-market sector would slow, recovery in household consumption not assured
• Board considered three main reasons for keeping rates unchanged
• Strength in labour market strongest reason for holding steady, tightness not consistent with 2.5% inflation
• Possible policy was not as restrictive as thought, or that the economy could pick up quicker than expected
• US trade policy could have material adverse effect on business investment, household consumption

At this meeting the Bank cut rates for the first time since November 2020. The rate hiking cycle began in May 2022 with a move to 0.35%, and the Bank had been on hold at 4.35% since last hiking in November 2023.

***

In summary from the Minutes, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) opted to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, citing increased downside risks to the economy.

Policymakers expressed concern that keeping monetary policy too tight for too long could stifle growth. However, they also remained wary of the potential for an easing cycle to reignite inflationary pressures, as core inflation remains above the 2–3% target band at 3.2% and is not expected to return to the mid-point anytime soon.

Despite the rate cut, the RBA emphasized that this move does not signal a commitment to further reductions, keeping future policy decisions flexible and dependent on evolving economic conditions. The board’s approach highlights the delicate balance between supporting growth and ensuring inflation does not accelerate.

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock at her February 18 press conference following the rate cut.

• following an 8.1% gain in Q3.

Preliminary Q4 GDP grew at an annualized 2.8%, up from 1.7% in Q3, supported by business spending and a surprise rise in consumption.

• Capex data will be used to calculate revised GDP figures due on March 11.

More:

• Corporate sales rose 2.5%, and recurring profits increased 13.5% in Q4.
• Despite recent strength in corporate investment, rising global economic uncertainties and U.S. trade policies are making Japanese firms cautious.
• Japan aims to double annual corporate capex to 200 trillion yen by 2040, with last year’s spending exceeding 100 trillion yen for the first time in 32 years.
• Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s economic panel has urged bold policies to boost domestic investment amid shifts in global supply chains

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%.

How the process works:

• Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day’s trading.
• The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.
• Intervention: If the yuan’s value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency’s value.

• chance of a US 2025 recession is small but not zero
• fiscal spending to boost economy

• Japan finance minister Kato says Japan is not devaluing the yen

For more background on Trump’s threats:

Trump said on Monday that he has warned the leaders of China and Japan against devaluing their currencies, arguing that such actions put American industries at a disadvantage.

• “I’ve called President Xi, I’ve called the leaders of Japan to say you can’t continue to reduce and break down your currency,” Trump said during remarks at the White House. “You can’t do it because it’s unfair to us.”

Trump’s comments reflect longstanding concerns in Washington that some countries deliberately weaken their currencies to make exports more competitive while making U.S. goods more expensive on global market

• it makes it difficult for US firms to compete when other countries “are killing their currency, meaning driving it down.”

Currency policy has been a key issue in U.S.-China trade tensions, with Washington previously accusing Beijing of manipulating the yuan to gain a trade advantage. Japan, which has a history of currency interventions, has also faced scrutiny over its exchange rate policies.

Trump’s remarks signal that currency practices remain a point of contention in U.S. trade relations, adding another layer of complexity to economic discussions with China and Japan.

From the blurb:

• A federal election that could result in a hung parliament, stubbornly weak economic growth, a stuttering energy transition, an uncertain outlook for regional security and populist scrutiny of any business with a social licence are just some of the challenges that could put Australia’s hard-won prosperity at risk.

Its taking place today and tomorrow and will feature, amongst many others:

• David Solomon, Chairman & CEO, The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. – speaking Tuesday
• Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia – speaking on Wednesday

We’ll be getting some headlines out of this, from Hauser at least.

Via Bloomberg:

• the official said all US military equipment not currently in Ukraine would be paused, including weapons in transit on aircraft and ships or waiting in transit areas in Poland
• Trump ordered Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to execute the pause, the person said.

• Japan is not pursuing a policy of devaluaing the yen
• I have confirmed with US Treasury Secretary Bessent our basic stance on forex
• I won’t comment on foreign leaders have to say

ICYMI over the past decade or so, Japanese authorities say super-loose monetary policy is in order to combat deflation and low inflation, the weak yen is just a side effect.

USD/JPY update: