US January non-farm payrolls +151K vs +160K expected

• Two-month net revision: -2K versus +100K prior
• Unemployment rate: +4.1% versus 4.0% expected
• Unrounded unemployment rate: 4.1396% versus 4.0113% prior
• Prior unemployment rate: 4.0%
• Participation rate: 62.4% versus 62.6% prior
• U6 underemployment rate: 8.0% versus 7.5% prior
• Average hourly earnings (m/m): +0.3% versus +0.3% expected
• Prior avg hourly earnings: +0.5%
• Average hourly earnings (y/y): +4.0% versus +4.1% expected and +4.1% prior (prior revised to +3.9%)
• Average weekly hours: 34.1 versus 34.2 expected and 34.1 prior
• Change in private payrolls: +140K versus +142K expected and +111K prior
• Change in manufacturing payrolls: +10K versus +5K expected and +3K prior
• Government jobs: +11K versus +32K prior
• Full-time jobs: -1193K versus +234K prior
• Household survey -588K

The earnings number was expected to come down on the reversal of one-time things like storms and California fires and that unfolded. The unemployment rate side is a bit of a concern as it ticked back higher despite a 0.2 percentage point decline in the participation rate.

If you look under the surface, there is more weakness than meets the eye here and we’re seeing some USD softening in the aftermath. That said, there were fears of a much worse number than this, so I’d classify it as a neutral report for the market.

In terms of the Fed, we’ve seen a slight dip in May Fed cut pricing and it’s now fractionally below 50% from as high as 60% this week.

Here is a look at sectoral hiring:

Health care +52,000
Financial +21,000
Local gov’t +20,000
Construction +19,000
Transport/warehouse +18,000
Social aid +11,000
Manufacturing +10,000

Professional/biz -2,000 (decline in temp help -12k)
Retail -6,000
Federal gov’t -10,000
Hospitality -16,000 (big decline in restaurants -28k)

Temp help is seen as a leading indicator.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.