A word of caution: The temperature will be rising all week long

Discretion is the better part of valour.

This is going to be a volatile, uncertain week as we build up towards the US election next Tuesday. But it’s not just that, it’s a blockbuster week for economic data.

It starts light today with the Fed thankfully in the blackout period and only the lowly Dallas Fed on the economic calendar.

But the market is digesting a big drop in oil prices after Israel restricted its retaliation to military targets and the market suspects that’s the end of this chapter. WTI crude is down $4.40 to $67.38 in a move that’s helping to restrain Treasury yields ahead of today’s borrowing estimates. We’re also sorting through the Japanese election.

The big events this week come later with economic data and earnings. Tomorrow we get JOLTS and consumer confidence, on Wednesday it’s GDP and ADP, on Thursday it’s PCE and on Friday it’s non-farm payrolls and ISM manufacturing. For earnings, it’s the biggest week of the quarter with 5 of the Mag7 reporting.

Not only that, we get month-end flows, The UK budget, China PMIs and a handful of other major data points. S&P 500 futures are 23 points higher and FX is largely flat aside from EUR and GBP strength. I wouldn’t take any market move for granted this week and explaining moves will be difficult.

As Ryan Paisey writes, “If you’re a short-term trader, this is about as messy as things get in my opinion, snorkelling in a swamp means it’s difficult to tell the difference between a log and a piece of sh…you get the idea.”

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.