AI might be a no-moat business and it will reshape everything

The journey of AI in the past 16 months has been one of the most-remarkable stories in human history. From what I’ve heard, we’re still just at the beginning.

The image models are becoming flawless and undetectable, video will soon follow with 3D shortly behind, perhaps all before year end. GPT 5 is coming within months and I suspect it will raise the bar to jaw-dropping heights.

“I think it kinda sucks,” Altman said this week (he no doubt is using GPT 5).

The leader in images is Midjourney and what blows my mind most is that there are just 45 people at the company. This is an AI image and I would be shocked if anyone could tell the difference:

What’s increasingly clear is that AI has been unlocked and that it’s more of a technique than anything that can be put behind a moat. With the right data, training and computing power, small teams can build incredible AI products.

Microsoft has climbed into bed with OpenAI and their killer app will be to integrate AI into their product suite. But that alone is only something to re-inforce the moat that Microsoft already has.

As the ecosystem of developers who know how to train the data grows, so will the applications and given the ease of doing it and advancements of compute, it could be one of the most-deflationary forces in history.

In Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI this month, he made this claim relating to Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella.

As the November 2023 drama was unfolding, Microsoft’s CEO boasted that it
would not matter “[i]f OpenAI disappeared tomorrow.” He explained that “[w]e have all the IP
rights and all the capability.” “We have the people, we have the compute, we have the data, we have
everything.” “We are below them, above them, around them.”

Those comments weren’t published elsewhere and there’s no citation so I can’t be sure of the authenticity but I believe that’s the nature of AI.

The only moat — it seems — is in compute and that’s why Nvidia is now the third most-valuable company in the world.

In any case, I’m excited for where this all leads

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.