ANZ: Surprise resilience in physical demand for gold, but for how long?

ANZ highlights the unexpected resilience of physical gold demand despite the surge in prices, attributing steady global consumption levels to strong interest from China and India. The report discusses the potential limits to further demand growth due to the prolonged period of elevated prices.

Key Points:

1. Steady Global Consumption: Global gold demand remained consistent at 3,057t in 2023, closely aligning with the decade’s average despite record-high prices.
2. China’s Strong Demand: A 16% year-on-year increase in China’s gold consumption to 959t in 2023, driven by pent-up demand and a shift towards value preservation amidst economic uncertainties.
3. India’s Sustained Interest: India’s gold consumption slightly declined in 2023 but stayed near pre-pandemic levels, supported by a growing affluent population.
4. Price Sensitivity and Demand Outlook: While physical demand has shown resilience, the continued high price levels may challenge further growth in demand, especially in key markets like China and India.

Conclusion:

Despite the challenges posed by sustained high gold prices, physical demand for gold has shown remarkable resilience, particularly in major markets such as China and India. ANZ suggests that while this trend demonstrates the underlying strength and appeal of gold as an investment, the potential for significant demand growth may be curtailed unless there’s a notable change in price trends. Demand is expected to remain stable, reflecting the balance between value preservation motives and price sensitivity among consumers.

Gold today is down $4 to $2156.

For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.