Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker swan dives into recessionary territory

The market has been fretting about slowing growth and it just got some fresh ammo.

The Atlanta Fed Q1 GDP tracker has plunged to -1.5% from +2.3% in one of the steepest declines the index has ever seen.

“After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.41 percentage points to -3.70 percentage points while the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from 2.3 percent to 1.3 percent,” the latest update said.

I’d caution that it’s still very early in the quarterly data cycle.

Today’s trade data number was particularly soft. That’s most a reflection of today’s poor trade balance data. The deficit rose to 153B from $122B and virtually all of the jump was in imports.

I’m confident that’s due to front-running of tariffs and inventory stockpiling.

However there is also a drag from consumption, which highlights some of the uncertainty. A downside risk is from residential investment, which is looking dismal after guidance from Home Depot and the latest pending home sales number (which hit a record low).

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.