AUD popped after the higher than expected monthly inflation data

The Australian monthly inflation data is here:

• Australian April CPI 3.6% y/y (expected 3.4%)

As I pointed out a couple of times, the monthly CPI data from Australia does not show all components of the CPI, that’ll have to wait for the quarterly data release.

• The monthly CPI indicator does, however, provide a timelier indication of inflation using the same data collected for use in the quarterly CPI. The monthly reading includes updated prices for between 62 and 73 per cent of the weight of the quarterly CPI basket, its not the full picture.

The full quarterly reading is not due until the end of July.

While this is a stopgap update it won;t be ignored. Boht the headline and core came in hotter than the previous month. Indeed, the trimmed mean, core, measure bottomed in January. The RBA target band is 2 – 3% and both measures are well above that.

This data will be another reason to delay RBA rate cuts. Its not enough to trigger a rate hike, we’ll have to wait for the quarterly reading to get an indication on this.

At the beginning of July tax cuts will kick in for Australians. Generous tax cuts. If these are spent rather than saved it could well fuel further inflation. Another thing for the RBA to consider.

Other data from Australia was weak:

• Australian data: Q1 Construction work completed -2.9% q/q vs. +0.5% expected

AUD/USD popped on the CPI report but has stabilised:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.