AUD traders, here’s what’s really happening with the Reserve Bank Australia. Nov meet live

This piece is from analyst Michael Pascoe here is Australia, arguing that a Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cut is likely on the horizon despite all the tough tough from Governor Bullock last week.

Check it out here:

• The Reserve Bank fibs and has no idea about wages causing inflation

The key points:

• RBA typically downplays rate cuts until the last minute
• Inflation hawks looking backward, doves looking forward
• Wage growth not driving key inflation areas
• RBA admits uncertainty in forecasting and labor market dynamics
• Latest wage price index shows annualized 3.4% growth in H1 2024, below CPI
• RBA focused on anchoring inflation expectations around 2.5% target

Pascoe suggests that an interest rate cut could be “live” by November meeting. I agree.

This screenshot is from the front page of the Bank’s website.

The next lot of inflation data reports are due on:

August 28

• Monthly Consumer Price Index indicator for July

September 25

• Monthly Consumer Price Index indicator for August

October 30

• September Quarter 2024 – this is the biggie!
• Monthly Consumer Price Index indicator for September

The next RBA meeting following the quarterly CPI due on October 30 is on 4 and 5 November.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.