AUD/USD towards 0.6220 after encouraging CPI data

The monthly CPI data is not the critical piece of information, that is the quarterly data due on January 29.

Still, though, there is encouragement from the November data, with the core rate having a chunk taken out of it:

• Australian November CPI 2.3% y/y (vs. expected 2.2%)
• Trimmed mean (a measure of core inflation) 3.2% y/y (vs. prior 3.5%)

In addition to the CPI data were job vacancy data:

+14K in the 3 months to November

• the first rise in vacancies since May 2022

If the decent CPI result in November is reflected in the quarterly data (which will cover Q4 2024, ie October, November and December) it’ll prompt further pricing of a February Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut. Currently April has overtaken May as the favourite for a 25bp rate cut.

Australian bond yields and the AUD fell after the CPI data, update:

One-minute candles to give you a picture of how AUD responded.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.