AUDUSD falls as risk-off sentiment and technical sellers push the pair lower

The AUDUSD moved higher yesterday as the USD weakened, bringing the pair within 5 pips of the 38.2% retracement level from the September 2024 high. Just above that, the falling 100-day moving average (MA) also acted as resistance. Sellers leaned into these levels, leading to a technical rotation lower.

As the session progressed, US equity markets came under increasing pressure, shifting the market’s focus to risk-off sentiment. The NASDAQ is on pace for its course day since January 6, while the Dow 30 is on pace for its worst trading day since October 21.

The AUDUSD, which is sensitive to stock market declines and concerns over slower growth, became vulnerable to further downside pressure. Additionally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report intensified fears about the economy, while rising inflation components added to the anxiety, accelerating the decline.

The pair has since retreated, trading back near early-week levels and last week’s closing price. A week ago, the AUDUSD closed at 0.6350, and it is currently trading just above that at 0.6356, with today’s low reaching 0.6351.

Key Technical Levels:

• Downside:
  • A key swing area near 0.6334 (previous support/resistance). A break below this level would open the door for a move toward the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart, between 0.6287 and 0.6301.
• Upside:
  • A move above the 38.2% retracement level at 0.64139 would shift the bias to the bullish side, signaling potential further gains.

For now, the technical picture suggests sellers remain in control unless the pair can reclaim key resistance levels.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.