AUDUSD Technical Analysis

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no
  change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and
  the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the
  unemployment rate lower.
• The US CPI beat expectations for the third
  consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.
• The US NFP beat expectations across the board
  although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.
• The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with
  the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to
  the lowest level in 4 years.
• The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a
  big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.
• The market now expects the first rate cut in
  September.

AUD

• The
  RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting and
  finally dropped the tightening bias.
• The
  last Monthly CPI report came in line with
  expectations although the underlying inflation measure increased from the prior
  month.
• The
  latest labour market report missed expectations by a big
  margin.
• The
  wage price index surprised to the upside as wage
  growth in Australia remains strong.
• The
  latest Australian PMIs showed the Manufacturing PMI falling
  further into contraction while the Services PMI continue to increase and remain
  in expansion.
• The
  market expects the first rate cut in November.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD fell
below the 0.6440 low and extended the selloff into the 0.64 handle. The price
is a bit overstretched as depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In such
instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some
consolidation before the next move. In this case, the pullback would also
coincide with the support now turned resistance and the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
which will be a nice zone for the sellers to enter the market again with a
better risk to reward setup.

AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a
minor trendline defining
the current downward momentum with the blue 8 moving average acting as dynamic
resistance. We can expect the sellers to lean on this trendline with a defined
risk above it to position for further downside. The buyers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking higher to position for a rally into the
0.65 resistance zone.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price has been diverging with
the MACD which
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, if get a pullback, the sellers should lean on the
trendline where they will also find the confluence of the
trendline, the Fibonacci retracement levels and the red 21 moving average. If
the price were to break higher though, the reversal will be confirmed, and the
buyers will pile in for a rally into the 0.65 resistance zone.

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This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.