AUDUSD Technical Analysis

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed
  three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth
  and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.
• Fed Chair Powell
  maintained a neutral stance as he said that it was premature to react to the
  recent inflation data given possible bumps on the way to their 2% target.
• The US CPI and
  the US PPI beat
  expectations for the second consecutive month.
• The US Jobless Claims beat
  expectations last week.
• The US ISM
  Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with
  the prices component continuing to increase.
• The US Consumer
  Confidence missed expectations although the labour
  market details improved.
• The market now sees basically a 50/50 chance of a
  cut in June.

AUD

• The
  RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting and
  finally dropped the tightening bias.
• The
  last Monthly CPI report came in line with
  expectations although the underlying inflation measure increased from the prior
  month.
• The
  latest labour market report missed expectations by a big
  margin.
• The
  wage price index surprised to the upside as wage
  growth in Australia remains strong.
• The
  latest Australian PMIs showed the Manufacturing PMI falling
  further into contraction while the Services PMI continue to increase and remain
  in expansion.
• The
  market expects the first rate cut in August.

AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD broke
again below the key 0.65 support zone and
it’s now looking towards the 0.6443 low. That’s where we can expect the buyers
to step in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally back
into the 0.6623 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 0.63 handle.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the pair seems
to be trading inside a falling channel. If we get a bigger pullback from the
current levels, we can expect the sellers to lean on the upper bound of the
channel to position for a drop into the lows with a better risk to reward
setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will need the price to break above the
upper bound of the channel to invalidate the bearish setup and trigger a rally
into the 0.6623 level.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the recent price action with the pair now getting rejected from the
resistance zone. The sellers might pile in around these levels already if we
get strong US data or wait for a pullback into the top trendline in case the
data misses estimates.

Upcoming Events

Today we have the US Job Openings and tomorrow the
US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless
Claims figures while on Friday we conclude with the US NFP report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.