AUDUSD Technical Analysis

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no
  change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and
  the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the
  unemployment rate lower.
• Fed Chair Powell maintained a neutral stance as he said that it was
  premature to react to the recent inflation data given possible bumps on the way
  to their 2% target.
• The US CPI and the US PPI beat expectations for the second
  consecutive month.
• The US NFP beat expectations across the board
  although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.
• The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with
  the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to
  the lowest level in 4 years.
• There’s now basically a 50/50 chance of a rate cut
  in June.

AUD

• The
  RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting and
  finally dropped the tightening bias.
• The
  last Monthly CPI report came in line with
  expectations although the underlying inflation measure increased from the prior
  month.
• The
  latest labour market report missed expectations by a big
  margin.
• The
  wage price index surprised to the upside as wage
  growth in Australia remains strong.
• The
  latest Australian PMIs showed the Manufacturing PMI falling
  further into contraction while the Services PMI continue to increase and remain
  in expansion.
• The
  market expects the first rate cut in August.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD rallied
back into the key 0.6623 resistance
following the goldilocks US NFP report. We can expect the sellers to step in
around these levels again with a defined risk above the resistance to position
for a drop into the lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 0.69 handle.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price
recently bounced on the 0.6560 support zone where we had also the 50% Fibonacci retracement level
and the red 21 moving average for confluence. If the
price goes back there, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk
below the support to position for a break above the resistance level with a
better risk to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see
the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a strong support zone around the 0.6590 level where we can find the
confluence of the previous swing level, the trendline and
the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This is the first support the buyers
might want to use to position for a break above the resistance level. The
sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to the downside to increase
the bearish bets into the 0.6560 support.

Upcoming Events

Tomorrow we get the US CPI report and the FOMC Minutes.
On Thursday, we will have the US PPI and the latest US Jobless Claims figures.
On Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer
Sentiment Survey.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.