Australian inflation data earlier “close but no ….” rate cut

The data is here:

• Australian Q3 inflation headline 2.8% y/y (expected 2.9%)
• AUD/USD little changed after the Australian inflation data – minor wobble

And, this is unlikely:

• Australian inflation data – what could drive a December Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut

A couple of comments from around the place:

Oxford Economics:

• latest data was what was “expected”
• headline inflation back in the target band would not lead to a rate cut

• “The main game is core inflation and that is unfortunately still too high for the RBA to be comfortable with cutting rates”

• state and federal electricity subsidies curbing headline inflation
• these measures due to unwind next year

Capital Economics:

• “Although quarterly trimmed mean CPI is not yet rising at
  pace consistent with the RBA’s target range, we think it will do
  so before long,” “That should pave the way for the Bank to begin easing
  policy at its meeting next February”

Bendigo Bank:

• a cut in February or May has remained a close call for some time
• we continue to suggest an RBA rate cut in May is most likely

The Reserve Bank of Australia hasn’t updated the front page of its website yet:

I should fix that …. here we go:

Tee hee. When you know just enough HTML to be a danger to yourself and others.

(ps. Don’t go checking the RBA website for my change, its only local to me 😉 )

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.