Be prepared. What key levels should you eye in the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD through US jobs

The US jobs report is ahead and in the video, I outline the key technical levels in play and explain why for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.

Overall, the USD is mixed ahead of the US jobs report at 8:30 AM ET. The dollar is lower vs the EUR (-0.56%), JPY (-0.11%), GBP (-0.19%), and CHF (-0.41%). The greenback is higher vs the AUD (+0.58%) and NZD (+0.37%).

The expectations for the jobs show:

• Consensus estimate +160K
• Estimate range +30K to +300K
• January was +143K
• Private jobs consensus +142K versus +111K prior
• Unemployment rate consensus estimate 4.0% versus 4.0% prior
• Prior unrounded unemployment rate 4.0113%
• Prior participation rate 62.6%
• Prior underemployment U6 7.5%
• Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +4.1% versus +4.1% prior
• Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.5% prior
• Avg weekly hours exp 34.2 versus 34.1 prior

Numbers released so far this month:

• ADP report +77K versus +186K prior. WEAKER
• ISM services employment 53.9 vs 52.3 prior. STRONGER
• ISM manufacturing employment 47.6 vs 50.3 prior. WEAKER
• Challenger job cuts 172.02k vs 49.79k prior. WEAKEE
• Philly employment +5.3 vs +11.9 prior/ WEAKER but growing
• Empire employment -3.6 vs +1.2 prior. WEAKER and declining.
• Initial jobless claims survey week 219K vs 215K prior. STEADY.

Canada will also speak release its employment data for Feb with the expectation of 20.0K vs 76.0K last month. The unemployment rate is expected at 6.7% vs 6.6% last month. Full time employment rose 35.2K last month while Part time rose 40.9K. The average hourly wages grew 3.7% last month.

US stokcs are mixed/little changed ahead of the data. The US yields are modestly lower.

Other US fundamental news ahead of jobs:

Treasury Sec. Bessent has been speaking on CNBC and is saying tariffs will be starting April 2nd and will provide other countries with a choice if they want frictionless trade. They are viewed as a one-time price adjustment, though the full impact remains uncertain. Despite lower energy prices, the administration believes they are not receiving enough credit for the reductions. A natural economic adjustment is expected as the economy transitions from public to private spending, with a detox period anticipated during this shift.

The long-term effects of tariffs remain uncertain. However, the administration maintains a strong Dollar policy and opposes currency manipulation. While there is no “Trump put,” there is potential upside in a “Trump call.” Corporate activity is expected to see a pickup, and real income gains for the lower 50% of Americans could help offset any negative consequences of these economic shifts.

He also is speaking to the meetings with Ukraine and acknowledged that security guarantees need to come from Europe.

Overnight Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic emphasized that the economy is in a state of flux, making it difficult to predict future outcomes. He cautioned that waiting for clear trends in national economic data before taking action could lead to delayed responses. The Fed is closely monitoring developments and engaging with businesses and individuals to assess changes affecting prices and employment.

Regarding tariffs, Bostic noted that they introduce higher costs, which will likely result in higher prices. However, whether these price increases lead to sustained inflation remains uncertain. He acknowledged that inflation has been volatile as expected and that he has been reassessing economic signals since the start of the year. Businesses remain optimistic in certain sectors, such as deregulation and energy, but the overall economic direction is still unclear. He does not expect significant clarity on policy impacts before late spring or summer, and decisions at the Fed’s May or June meetings will depend on how much clarity emerges by then. Bostic stressed the importance of patience, warning that frequently shifting policy direction is not ideal, and advocating for a measured approach as developments unfold

A look at market levels shows a mixed picture for US stocks, and lower US yields:

• Dow industrial average -20.08 points. Yesterday the index fell -427.51 points or -0.99%
• S&P index +1.48 points. Yesterday the index tumbled 104.11 points or -1.78% at 5738.52
• NASDAQ index +30 points. Yesterday, the index felt -483.48 points or -2.61%.

Broadcom, is trading higher after recording better than expected earnings. Yesterday, the stock fell. -6.33%. Today the stock is up 10.28%. Costco also announced after the close yesterday and disappointed. It stock is down -2.04% after falling -2.02% yesterday.

In the US debt market, yields are lower:

• 2-year 3.945%, -1.7 basis points
• 5-year 4.029%, -2.9 basis points
• 10 year 4.251%, -3.1 basis points
• 30 year 4.553%, -2.5 basis points

looking at other markets:

• Crude oil is trading up $1.13 at $67.49
• Spot gold is trading up $8.95 or 0.29% at $2920
• Spot silver is trading down $0.22 or -0.69% at $32.40
• Bitcoin is trading $-500 or -0.60% at $89,390. The price reached a low of $84,713 and a high of $91,277 involved trading

In the European equity markets:

• German

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.