Beige Book: Fed districts deport slight growth, rising business optimism for 2025

Economic activity rose slightly in most Districts
• Three regions exhibited modest or moderate
  growth that offset flat or slightly declining activity in two others
• Expectations for growth rose moderately across most geographies
• Employment levels flat to slightly higher, hiring subdued amid low turnover
• Wage growth softened to modest pace, except robust gains for entry-level and skilled trade positions
• Price increases modest; firms report greater difficulty passing costs to customers
• Consumer spending stable but price sensitivity increasing
• Manufacturing activity mixed across regions
• Commercial real estate markets showing signs of stabilization in some areas

Notable Details:

Prices “rose only at a modest pace” across Federal Reserve Districts
• Insurance costs remain key inflation pressure point
• Businesses stockpiling inventory ahead of potential import tariffs
• Data center demand driving robust electricity usage growth

Outlook:

Business expectations for growth improved moderately
• Most districts optimistic about demand increasing in coming months
• Some uncertainty around potential trade/immigration policy changes
• Firms cautious on hiring plans despite positive demand outlook

The prior report said economic activity was “little changed in nearly all Districts”. Fed officials cited the Beige Book for the big Fed cut in September. This time, the survey is a tad more upbeat, at least going forward. I find it hard to see a gamechanger here though.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.