Benchmark revision sees 28.8K fewer Canadian jobs in 2024, softer picture late in the year

Canada’s labor market for 2024 has been revised, and the updated data paints a weaker picture than initially thought, with a noticeable decline in employment levels toward the end of the year. While the headline-grabbing December surge of 91,000 jobs remained intact after revisions, the broader trend reveals mounting weakness since September.

The revisions show that earlier optimism about steady job growth through the year was overstated. Notably, the updates slashed October’s job growth from 14,500 to a mere 3,300, while November’s figures were cut from 50,500 to 43,800. These adjustments bring attention to a concerning deceleration in the final quarter of 2024.

The late-year softness contrasts sharply with the momentum earlier in the year and raises questions about the underlying health of the economy heading into 2025.

On net, there were 28.8K fewer jobs created than initially reported. Overall, there isn’t a big shift, as this graphic shows. It means employment rose 1.9% y/y in December compared to 2.0% previously.

If you go back further, there was an upward revision of 179K employees for the 2021-2024 period. That puts the employment rate at 61.0% compared to 60.8%. The unemployment in December remained unchanged at 6.7%.

I wouldn’t think this would change much for the Bank of Canada, particularly since the December employment report was so strong.

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This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.