Bitcoin Price Prediction by TradeCompass

TradeCompass for Bitcoin Futures – February 4, 2025

Bitcoin Futures Key Levels & Trade Strategy

At the time of this analysis, Bitcoin Futures is trading at 99,750. The market structure presents a tight value area, reflecting a consolidated trading session.

• POC (Point of Control): 99,995, aligning closely with the 100,000 round number—a key psychological and liquidity level.
• VWAP: 101,104, also positioned near the POC, reinforcing the tight consolidation.
• Value Area (68% of volume traded): Between 99,000 (round number support) and 100,500 (semi-round resistance).
• Range Analysis: A narrow 1.5% trading range, suggesting potential for expansion once price breaks key thresholds.

Bullish Outlook for Bitcoin Futures Today

📈 Bullish Above: 101,060

• This level is just above the first standard deviation of yesterday’s VWAP, signaling a breakout potential.

Bullish Profit Targets for Bitcoin Futures Bulls:

1. 101,015 – First upper standard deviation of today’s VWAP (short-term scalp level).
2. 101,965 – Second upper standard deviation of today’s VWAP (intraday target).
3. 102,285 – Near today’s VWAP open (stronger bullish extension).
4. 102,660 – Key liquidity level for medium-term traders.
5. 105,080 – Potential runner target below the value area high from two days ago.

Bearish Outlook for Bitcoin Futures Today

📉 Bearish Below: 98,930

• A potential fake breakdown trap could occur around this level, requiring cautious stop placement.

Bearish Profit Targets for Bitcoin Futures Bears:

1. 98,240 – First lower standard deviation of today’s VWAP (quick initial target).
2. 97,585 – Just above yesterday’s VWAP (intraday bearish continuation).
3. 95,615 – Above yesterday’s value area high (deeper downside move).
4. 94,495 – Extended bearish target.
5. 91,435 – Second lower standard deviation of yesterday’s VWAP (capitulation-level drop).

Trade Execution & Risk Considerations

• Stops: Not specified, as risk tolerance varies among traders.
• Trading Style Adaptability:
  • Some traders use Trade Compass as confirmation alongside their strategy.
  • Others fade moves at key levels instead of following directional bias.
• Profit-Taking Strategy:
  • Taking chips off the table at structured levels allows partial profit locking.
  • “One big move” mindset can be risky, making structured exits crucial.

📚 Not Just for Bitcoin Trading – Educational Insights

What is the Value Area & Why Does It Matter?

• The Value Area represents where 68-70% of trading activity occurs.
• It helps traders identify balance zones, breakout potential, and liquidity pockets.
• Bitcoin today has a tight value area, increasing the likelihood of range expansion.

What is VWAP & Why It’s Important?

• Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) tracks the average price based on both price and volume.
• It acts as a dynamic fair value indicator, widely used by institutions.
• Deviations from VWAP (1st, 2nd, 3rd standard deviations) help traders identify overbought or oversold conditions.

Point of Control (POC) – Key Level for Traders

• POC represents the price with the highest traded volume in the session.
• It often acts as a magnet for price, making it a key reference level for reversals or breakouts.

⚠️ Trade Bitcoin at Your Own Risk

• Markets are dynamic, and levels should be reassessed in real-time.
• Price action, volume, and delta behavior should confirm trade entries.
• Always trade at your own risk only, no one can promise your to profit and you must take into account that you can lose money in crypto trading.

✅ Stay tuned for future TradeCompass updates!

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.