BlackRock’s Reider says US rates too high – “Fed Funds rate remains far too restrictive”

Reider citing the US government report, from the Bureau of Labour Statistics showing annual preliminary benchmark revisions in payrolls came in at -818k since March 2023.

ICYM the numbers:

Non-farm payrolls benchmark revisions -818K

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Non-farm payrolls revisions cut 818,000 jobs

ps. Ask me for tips on how to get the data quicker than anyone else (got a phone?):

• Reports that at least 3 major banks got the jobs revision prior to the public release

Anyway, back to Reider:

• revisions in payrolls at -818k since March 2023 comes in addition to 778k jobs being revised away since Feb 2022
• This magnitude of preliminary revisions helps to validate some of the concern around the weakness in the labor market in recent months.
• Ultimately, today’s report highlights the importance of the labor portion of the Fed’s dual mandate and codifies the fact that the Fed Funds rate remains far too restrictive amidst slowing inflation and a moderating economy.

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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next meet on September 17 and 18. A rate cut is baked in. Will it be 25 or 50bp remains the question (I’m @ 25).

Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole on Friday at 10am US Eastern time

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.