BoJ Oct minutes: If inflation trends align with expectations, gradual rate hikes possible

I posted a recap of this meeting as a bit of a preview of this. Its here:

• the BOJ adopted a cautious stance, indicating that any future rate hikes would be contingent upon increased confidence in economic and price forecasts

A couple of weeks after the meeting the Bank published its ‘summary’, acknowledging it was running scared on yen gyrations:

• BOJ Summary (Oct.): Yen’s depreciation has significant effects

In summary from the report:

Market Operations

• Maintained the uncollateralized overnight call rate at 0.225–0.228%.
• Reduced Japanese Government Bond (JGB) purchases to ¥4.9 trillion per month in October, down from ¥5.3 trillion in September.
• Conducted corporate bond purchases as per earlier plans.

Financial Markets

• The yen depreciated against the USD and EUR due to rising U.S. interest rates.
• Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) rose slightly, and 10-year JGB yields increased in line with U.S. rates.
• Money market rates, including the GC repo rate, were stable near 0.25%.

Global Economy

• U.S. economy grew moderately, led by private consumption despite higher interest rates.
• European economies showed signs of stabilization but remained weak in parts.
• China’s recovery slowed, pressured by the real estate sector and labor market adjustments.
• Emerging and commodity-exporting economies saw moderate improvements, driven by IT-related exports.

Japan’s Economic Conditions

• Moderate recovery with weak spots; growth expected above potential in the medium term.
• Exports and industrial production were flat but anticipated to improve with global IT demand.
• Corporate profits and business investment continued on a moderate upward trend.
• Private consumption showed resilience, supported by wage increases despite rising prices.
• Inflation remained at 2.5%, driven by rising service prices and wages. Underlying inflation expected to rise gradually.

Monetary Policy

• The policy interest rate remained at 0.25%.
• The Board emphasized a cautious approach to monetary policy amid domestic and global uncertainties.
• If inflation trends align with expectations, gradual rate hikes are possible, with a potential path to 1.0% by late fiscal 2025.

Risks and Considerations

• High uncertainties around global economic developments, commodity prices, and geopolitical tensions.
• Monitoring required for wage-price dynamics, financial market conditions, and external factors like the U.S. presidential election and interest rate trends.

Government Remarks

• The government urged continued monetary policy support to achieve stable 2% inflation.
• Emphasis was placed on wage-driven economic growth and fiscal measures to counter deflationary pressures.

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The key point is that:

• If inflation trends align with expectations, gradual rate hikes are possible, with a potential path to 1.0% by late fiscal 2025

The meeting following this October meeting was the December meeting, where rates were held steady again.

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Full text is here

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.