BOJ Summary (Oct.): Yen’s depreciation has significant effects

The Bank made specific mention of forex issues in its statement after the October 30 and 31 meeting:

• Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged, as widely expected

The “Summary of Opinions” from this meeting highlights the following key points:

Economic Developments:

• Moderate Recovery: Japan’s economy continues to recover moderately, with some areas showing weakness. The virtuous cycle from income to spending is gradually strengthening.

• Private Consumption: While growth in private consumption has been somewhat weak, production, employment, and income have seen moderate growth. An uptrend in real wages is expected to bolster consumption.

• Labor Market: Labor shortages are prompting wage increases, including among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). However, concerns exist regarding the sustainability of these wage hikes, especially for SMEs with low profits.

Price Developments:

• Inflation Outlook: Underlying inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is projected to increase gradually. In the latter half of the projection period, it is expected to align with the BOJ’s 2% price stability target.

• Import Prices: The effects of previous import price rises are diminishing, which may influence future CPI developments.

Risks and Considerations:

• External Risks: Elevated long-term interest rates in the U.S. could lead to asset price adjustments, potentially impacting consumption and business investment.

• Foreign Exchange Rates: The yen’s depreciation has significant effects on business management and household sentiment. A retracement of the yen’s depreciation is generally viewed positively.

• Structural Reforms: For sustainable wage growth, especially among SMEs, structural reforms aimed at business expansion and productivity enhancement are deemed essential.

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Source full text is here: Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting on October 30 and 31, 2024

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The Bank of Japan (BOJ) releases a “Summary of Opinions” after each monetary policy meeting. It serves as a record of the discussion and views of the Policy Board members on various economic and financial issues.

Key points about the Summary:

• The summary includes the views of the Policy Board members on economic conditions, both domestically and globally. This includes assessments of economic growth, inflation, and employment trends, among other indicators.
• The summary also outlines the Policy Board members’ views on the effectiveness of the BOJ’s current monetary policy measures, including interest rate policy, asset purchases, and yield curve control. Members may discuss the pros and cons of these policies and their potential impact on the economy.
• The summary includes discussions on the outlook for monetary policy and the potential risks to the economy. Board members may express their views on the appropriate timing and direction of future policy changes, as well as the potential impact of external factors such as global economic conditions.
• The summary also includes any dissenting views among the Policy Board members. If a member disagrees with the majority view on a particular issue, they may express their own opinion and rationale.

In a few week’s time we’ll get the Minutes of this meeting. The Minutes are a more detailed record of the discussions and decisions made during the meeting.

• The Minutes include a more complete record of the views expressed, including any dissents or alternative opinions that may not be included in the summary.
• The Summary of Opinions is typically released a few days after the policy meeting, while the Minutes are published about a month later. This means that the Summary of Opinions can provide more up-to-date information on the BOJ’s current stance and view on the economy and monetary policy.
• The Summary of Opinions is usually written in a more accessible language, making it easier to understand the BOJ’s views on monetary policy.
• The Minutes, on the other hand, are often more technical and may require a deeper understanding of economics and financial markets.
• The Summary of Opinions is typically shorter than the Minutes.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.