BOJ’s Himino says rates will rise, but need to watch carefully for risks

Bank of Japan monetary policy board member Himino speech

• Will likely hike rates if our economic forecasts are realized.
• While direction is for further rate hikes, we must carefully watch various upside, downside risks at home and abroad.
• Hoping this year’s wage negotiations will deliver strong results.
• Reports from BOJ’s regional branch managers on wage outlook were strong overall.
• Various surveys show ratio of firms expecting to hike wages, expected pace of wage gains are at or above last year’s levels.
• Trump’s inaugural address likely to offer broad direction of U.S. policy.
• Expect U.S. economy to remain strong for time being.
• We will compile BOJ’s outlook report while analyzing various data, information.
• In guiding policy, determining timing of policy change is difficult and important.
• At next week’s policy meeting, board will likely debate whether to hike rates and make a decision.
• It is not normal state for real rates to stay negative for prolonged period once shock, deflationary factors dissipate.
• We can foresee future where Japan emerges from state where real rates are in deeply negative territory.
• As for near-term policy guidance, we need to look closely at short-term economic, price, and financial developments.
• Japan’s inflation expectations have gradually heightened, now around 1.5%.

The yen dropped in response:

I don’t see anything in Himino’s speech to indicate he is in a rush to raise rates. Yen was hit heavily on his speech. But there is nothing in it either to indicate he is much opposed to doing so.

The Bank of Japan policy meeting is coming up on 23 and 24 January.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.