Caixin China Manufacturing PMI (January 2025) 50.1 vs. expected 50.5

Caixin China Manufacturing PMI for January 2025:

A weak 50.1, but keeps its nose in expansion, fourth consecutive month of growth

• expected 50.5
• prior 50.5

This manufacturing PMI comes in better than the official manufacturing PMI:

• China official PMI data for January 2025: Manufacturing 49.1 (expected 50.1)

• Recap – China’s Manufacturing Sector Contracts in January, Economic Outlook Uncertain

From the report, in summary:

Supply & Demand:

• Both expanded slightly; domestic demand drove growth while export orders declined for the second month.

Employment:

• Fell sharply, with the lowest levels since February 2020; companies focused on cost control and limited new hiring.

Prices:

• Weak priceng environment; output prices fell for the second straight month despite rising raw material costs.

Logistics:

• Delivery times improved, reaching the fastest pace since May 2023; strong demand led to inventory restocking.

Business Optimism:

• Future output expectations grew, though below historical averages; concerns linger over China-U.S. trade relations.

Challenges:

• Declining employment, weak external demand, and sluggish price levels remain key issues.

Policy Impact:

• 2024 stimulus measures showed results, but their effectiveness may fade in 2025 amid global uncertainties.

***

Keep an eye on this … poor employment outcomes are not something the Chinese Communist Party wants. This might be the most encouragement for further stimulus:

***

Posted earlier, but here it is again ICYMI:

***

The two PMIs are quite different. If you are unfamiliar with this, the following will set you up for next year!

The PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Indexes) from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Caixin/S&P Global differ primarily in survey scope, methodology, and focus. Here’s a breakdown of the key differences:

1. Provider and Affiliation

• NBS PMI:

  • Compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, a government agency.
  • Seen as the official PMI, closely aligned with government policies and priorities.

• Caixin/S&P Global PMI:

  • Compiled by Caixin Media in collaboration with S&P Global.
  • A private-sector index, often considered more market-driven.

2. Survey Scope

• NBS PMI:

  • Focuses on large and state-owned enterprises.
  • Covers a broader range of industries, including manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors (e.g., construction and services).
  • Reflects conditions in sectors heavily influenced by government policies and infrastructure spending.

• Caixin PMI:

  • Focuses on small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), particularly in the private sector.
  • Captures the performance of companies that are more exposed to market-driven forces and less influenced by state interventions.

3. Sample Size and Composition

• NBS PMI:

  • Larger sample size, with about 3,000 enterprises surveyed for the manufacturing PMI.
  • Emphasizes state-owned enterprises and larger companies, which tend to dominate traditional industries.

• Caixin PMI:

  • Smaller sample size, surveying around 500 enterprises, with a stronger focus on export-oriented and technology-driven firms.
  • Provides insights into the private sector and its responsiveness to global economic conditions.

4. Release Dates

• NBS PMI:

  • Released monthly, typically on the last day of the month.
  • Provides separate PMIs for manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.

• Caixin PMI:

  • Released a few days later, usually on the first business day of the following month.
  • Includes only the manufacturing PMI and services PMI, with no equivalent for non-manufacturing activities like construction.

5. Interpretation and Use

• NBS PMI:

  • Reflects the overall economic landscape, especially trends in industries influenced by government policy.
  • Analysts use it to gauge the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on the broader economy.

• Caixin PMI:

  • Viewed as a better indicator of the health of the private sector and market-driven segments of the economy.
  • Considered more sensitive to external shocks (e.g., global trade conditions).

6. Key Insights and Differences in Results

• The NBS PMI often reflects policy-driven stability, showing less volatility because it covers sectors cushioned by government support.
• The Caixin PMI can be more volatile, as SMEs are more sensitive to real-time changes in market demand, supply chain disruptions, and global economic shifts.

Why Both Matter:

• NBS PMI offers a macroeconomic view of China’s state-influenced economy.
• Caixin PMI provides a microeconomic perspective of the more market-driven and globally competitive sectors.

By analyzing both, investors and policymakers can obtain a more comprehensive picture of China’s economic health and its underlying dynamics.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.