Canada CPI for November 0.0% versus 0.1% estimate

• Prior month 0.4%
• CPI MoM 0.0% versus 0.1% estimate
• Core CPI MoM 0.1% versus 0.4% last month
• CPI YoY 1.9% versus 2.0% YoY est. Prior month 2.0%
• CPI Median 2.6% versus 2.4% estimate. Last month 2.5% revised higher to 2.6%
• CPI Trim 2.7% versus 2.5% estimate. Last month 2.6% revised higher to 2.7%
• CPI Common 2.0% versus 2.2% last month
• CPI BOC Core YoY 1.6% versus 1.7% last month
• CPI BOC Core MoM -0.1% versus 0.4% last month

Details on the data:

Black Friday Impact

• Black Friday Sales Impact: Discounts during November contributed to lower prices across several categories.

Affected Indices:

Household Operations, Furnishings, and Equipment: Declined 0.9% in November.

• Key drivers:
  • Cellular services: -6.1%
  • Furniture: -2.1%

Clothing and Footwear: Declined 0.8% in November.

• Key drivers:
  • Women’s clothing: -0.8%
  • Children’s clothing: -4.9% (largest recorded monthly decline for November).

Rent impact

Summary of Key Points:

Shelter Component: Grew 4.6% YoY in November (slower than 4.8% in October).

Rent Prices: Accelerated in November to +7.7% (from +7.3% in October).

• Largest increases:
  • Ontario: +7.4%
  • Manitoba: +7.9%
  • Nova Scotia: +6.4%

Mortgage Interest Costs: Decelerated for the 15th consecutive month, rising +13.2% (vs. +14.7% in October).

Key Contributors: Rent and mortgage interest costs contributed the most to the 12-month all-items CPI increase in November.

Gasoline Price Impact

• Year over year, gasoline prices fell to a lesser extent in November (-0.5%) compared with October (-4.0%).
• The smaller year-over-year decline was a result of a base-year effect as prices fell 3.5% month over month in November 2023.

The price of USDCAD moved lower after the data with the high price today stalling just below the 1.4300 level before the rotation (highest level since March 2020).

The current price is currently at 1.7274. The high price from yesterday reached 1.4270. Moving below that level is a small win for the sellers in the short term, but only just a start. The high from Friday and the rising 100 hour MA at 1.4244 and 1.4211 are where those targets are found.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.