Canada February employment change 1.1 K vs 20.0K estimate

• Prior month 760 K (they were expecting 25.0K).
• Employment change 1.1 K vs 20.0K estimate. .
• Unemployment rate 6.6% vs 6.7% expected and 6.6% last month
• Full-time employment -19.7 K vs 35.2K last month
• Part-time employment 20.8 K vs 40.9K last month
• Participation rate 65.3% vs 65.5% last month.

Looking at wages:

• Average hourly earnings 3.8% vs 3.5%YoY last month. The level last month was the slowest since April 2022
• Average hourly wages permanent employees 4.0% vs 3.70% last month.
• Total hours worked fell points -1.3% in the month but were up +0.5% compared with 12 months earlier

Of note is total actual hours worked fell by 1.3% in February, marking the largest monthly decline since April 2022. However, on a year-over-year basis, hours worked were still up by 0.5% in February 2025. Severe winter storms across Central and Eastern Canada during the February 9 to February 15 reference week contributed to this decline, with 429,000 employees losing work hours due to the weather. This figure was more than four times higher than the five-year February average of 96,000 employees impacted by weather-related disruptions.

Other details by sector:

• Wholesale and Retail Trade: +51,000 (+1.7%) in February; up 107,000 (+3.7%) since July 2024, offsetting earlier declines; little change year-over-year.
• Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Rental and Leasing: +16,000 (+1.1%) in February; second increase in three months; up 60,000 (+4.3%) year-over-year.
• Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services: -33,000 (-1.6%) in February; recent growth has slowed after strong gains from July 2023 to November 2024.
• Transportation and Warehousing: -23,000 (-2.1%) in February; follows gains of 17,000 in December and 13,000 in January; down 29,000 (-2.6%) year-over-year.

The other sectors (see chart below) were +/- a little from unchanged.

Below is a look at the change by sector:

The number of employees in the private sector was little changed in February, following increases in December (+39,000; +0.3%) and January (+57,000; +0.4%). Public sector employment and self-employment were also both little changed in February.

Ahead of the report, the USDCAD was trading at 1.439, with technical resistance at the 200 and 100-hour moving averages near 1.4380 and 1.4388. On the downside, support comes at 1.42868 and 1.42789. Moves outside of those levels should lead to further momentum in the direction of the break.

The price action has been modestly higher since the report. Overall, it was weaker. Weather could have been a factor but there is weather in Canada in February.

Nevertheless, the USDCAD has moved higher modestly but is finding some resistance against the 50% midpoint of the move up from the February low at 1.4345.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.