Canada January employment change 76.0K vs 25.0K estimate

• Prior month 90.9K (was expecting 25.0 K). Revised sharply higher to 179.1 K
• Employment change 76.0K vs 25.0 K estimate. This is the 3rd consecutive monthly gain following increases in December (+91,000; +0.4%) and November (+44,000; +0.2%).
• Unemployment rate 6.6% versus 6.8% estimate. Last month 6.7%
• Full time employment 35.2K vs 57.5K last month revised sharply higher to 171.8K
• Part-time employment 40.9K vs 33.5 K last month revised lower to 7.1K
• Participaition rate 65.5% vs 65.1% last month.
• For the full report CLICK HERE

Looking at wages:

• Average hourly wages: +3.5% YoY in January (+$1.23 to $35.99), slowest since April 2022.
• Previous wage growth: 4.0% in December, 4.2% in November, ~5.0% through late 2022-2024.
• Permanent employees: +3.7% YoY ($36.83).
• Temporary employees: +2.5% YoY ($28.65).

Data is much stronger than expectations with revisions also much stronger

Other details:

Employment gains in January were led by:

• Manufacturing: +33K (+1.8%) in January, mainly in Ontario (+11K), Quebec (+9.7K), and British Columbia (+8.7K); little YoY change.
• Professional, Scientific & Technical Services: +22K (+1.1%) in January; +66K (+3.4%) YoY.
• Construction: +19K (+1.2%) in January; +58K (+3.6%) YoY.
• Accommodation & Food Services: +15K (+1.3%) in January.
• Transportation & Warehousing: +13K (+1.2%) in January.
• Agriculture: +10K (+4.4%) in January.
• Other Services: -14K (-1.8%) in January.

Even more details from the report:

• Over this three-month period, there were increases both in full-time work (+147,000; +0.9%) and part-time work (+64,000; +1.7%).
• Private sector employment: +57K (+0.4%) in January, +215K (+1.6%) YoY.
• Public sector employment: Little changed in January, +107K (+2.4%) YoY.
• Self-employment: +27K (+1.0%) in January, +94K (+3.6%) YoY.

The USDCAD was trading at 1.43215 ahead of the data release, and just above a swing area support between 1.4290 and 1.4304.

Dow industrial average is down -19 points. After the report, the Dow is trading up 33 points at a 40 3 AM ET

Now, the USDCAD has moved lower from the combination of the US and Canada jobs reports. The price moved down to a low at 1.4286. That moved took the price just below the “Red Box” area, but only barely. Getting below and staying below that area is needed to increase the bearish bias going ahead. The current price is trading at 1.4295 just above the low of that area.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.