Canada July CPI 2.5% versus 2.5% expected

• Prior was +2.7%
• CPI m/m +0.4% vs +0.4% expected
• Prior m/m -0.1%

Core measures

• CPI Bank of Canada core y/y 1.7% vs 1.9% prior
• CPI Bank of Canada core m/m +0.3% versus -0.1% prior
• Core CPI m/m SA +0.1% vs +0.1% prior
• Median 2.4% versus 2.6% prior
• Trim 2.7% versus 2.9% prior
• Common 2.2% versus 2.3% prior

USD/CAD was trading at 1.3602 just ahead of the release and rose to 1.3619 afterwards on the declines in core inflation. The headline y/y rise is the slowest pace since March 2021. Year-end BOC pricing rose to a full 75 bps from 72 bps.

The overall decline was broad based, stemming from lower prices for travel tours, passenger vehicles and electricity. A 2.4% rise in gasoline prices boosted the m/m reading but will be fleeting given the recent fall in oil prices and cracks.

• Prices for passenger vehicles fell 1.4% year over year in July
• Prices for used vehicles fell 5.7% y/y in July
• Prices for traveller accommodation (-3.7%) and air transportation (-2.7%) fell year over year in July, but both were up m/m
• Prices for shelter rose at a slower rate in July (+5.7%) compared with June (+6.2%)
• The mortgage interest cost index continued to slow year over year, up 21.0% in July compared with 22.3% in June
• Full report

Given that home prices and falling in much of Canada, the only real source of inflation in the country is high interest rates.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.