Canadian Real Estate Association downgrades 2024 forecast

• CREA now expects 468,900 properties to change hands in 2024
  • That’s up 5.2% from 2023
  • But down from July forecast of 6.1% increase
  • and way down from April forecast of 10.5% increase
• Average home price forecast for 2024:
  • Now expecting 0.9% annual increase to $683,200
  • Previous outlook was 2.5% annual increase
• September data:
  • Average home price: $669,630 (up 2.1% y/y)
  • Sales up 6.9% y/y, but only 1.9% m/m
  • New listings up 4.9% m/m
• 2025 forecast:
  • Home sales expected to climb 6.6%
  • Average home prices forecast to rise 4.4% to $713,375

The Canadian Real Estate Association always tilts optimistically because it’s run by realtors. The direction of the changes is more important than the overall numbers here, similar to the changes from OPEC yesterday that squashed oil prices.

If anything, the trends I’ve been seeing in Canada are worrisome and people are far estimating how much rate cuts will help, given that they’re all priced in and Canada 5-year yields are off the lows.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.