China data due today – expected to meet 2024 GDP target, “but U.S. tariff risks loom”

China’s Q4 economic growth data is due today, along with December economic activity data. I posted a preview here:

• Economic calendar in Asia 17 January 2025 – December and Q4 data due from China
• due at 0200 GMT, which is 2100 US Eastern time

Reuters have posted a heads up also. In summary:

Key Takeaways:

• Q4 GDP Growth: Expected to rise to 5.0%, up from 4.6% in Q3.
• Full-Year 2024 Growth: Estimated at 4.9%, close to the official 5% target.
• 2025 Economic Outlook: Uncertain due to potential new U.S. tariffs under Trump’s administration.
• Policy Measures:
  • Chinese policymakers have ramped up stimulus, including rate cuts and local government debt relief.
  • More stimulus expected in 2025 as leaders pledge increased deficit spending and special bond issuance.
• Trade & Currency Risks:
  • Exports have been strong, but may weaken if new U.S. tariffs are imposed.
  • The yuan is under pressure, hitting a 16-month low amid dollar strength and trade uncertainties.
• 2025 & 2026 Growth Forecasts:
  • 2025 GDP expected to slow to 4.5%, with further cooling to 4.2% in 2026.
• Upcoming Policy Announcements:
  • More details on growth targets and stimulus to be unveiled in March’s annual parliamentary meeting.
  • The central bank is expected to deploy its most aggressive monetary policies in a decade to support the economy.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.