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China October CPI +0.3% y/y (expected +0.4%, prior +0.4%), deflation prospect lingers

October 2024 CPI rose 0.3% year-on-year, down from 0.4% in September, and below economists’ median expectations of 0.4%:

  • Shows continued weak consumer demand and keeps deflation concerns active. China faced deflation for four months at the end of 2023.

On the PPI:

  • Factory-gate prices -2.9% in October, falling from September’s -2.8% and much worse than economists’ median expectations of -2.5%
  • the deflationary trend in wholesale prices has continued since late 2022

Government Response:

The background to all this are the economic challenges the country faces:

  • Property crisis persisting, and persisting. This is impacting consumer confidence
  • Slowest economic expansion in 18 months during Q3
  • Potential future concerns about U.S. tariffs under possible Trump presidency
  • There are suggestions, which seem well-founded, that there is need for more consumer-focused stimulus measures. Botyh to boost domestic demand and avoid adding to industry overcapacity pressure, which is contributing to deflaton pressure.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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