China official PMI data for January 2025: Manufacturing 49.1 (expected 50.1)

China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data January PMIs

Manufacturing disappoints at 49.1

• expected 50.1, prior 50.1

Non manufacturing slumps to 50.2

• prior 52.2

Composite 50.1

• prior 52.2

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Background to this is that from July to December 2024 (ie H2 2024), China’s manufacturing sector experienced fluctuations, moving from contraction to modest expansion, while the non-manufacturing sector showed a similar pattern, culminating in a significant rebound in December.

Manufacturing PMI:

• July 2024: The manufacturing PMI stood at 49.4, a slight decrease of 0.1 from June, indicating a marginal contraction in manufacturing activity.

• August 2024: The index declined further to 49.1, suggesting a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector.

• September 2024: The PMI improved to 49.8, approaching the expansion threshold but still indicating a slight contraction.

• October 2024: The index reached 50.1, crossing into expansion territory, reflecting a modest recovery in manufacturing activity.

• November 2024: The PMI increased to 50.3, marking the highest reading since April and indicating a continued expansion in the manufacturing sector.

• December 2024: The index slightly decreased to 50.1%, maintaining its position above the threshold, thus indicating ongoing, albeit modest, expansion.

Non-Manufacturing PMI:

• July 2024: The non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.2, a decrease of 0.3 from June, indicating marginal expansion in the non-manufacturing sector.

• August 2024: The index declined to 49.6, signaling a contraction in non-manufacturing activities.

• September 2024: The PMI rebounded to 50.9, returning to expansion territory.

• October 2024: The index decreased to 50.6, indicating a slower pace of expansion.

• November 2024: The PMI further declined to 50.0, suggesting stagnation in non-manufacturing activities.

• December 2024: The index rose to 52.2, reflecting a notable recovery and expansion in the non-manufacturing sector.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.