Crude oil price forecast

Crude oil price outlook: key levels to watch amid bearish control

If you’re tracking the crude oil market, buckle up—things are heating up, and not just on the charts. As the price of light crude (CL1!) dances around some serious technical levels, traders and investors alike are on high alert. The bearish vibe is alive and kicking, fueled by a blend of chart signals and macroeconomic worries. So, what’s next for this slippery commodity? Let’s break down the key action points and what you should keep an eye on in the weeks to come.

The previous key resistance at $78.50 – the August open line in the sand

One spot that’s got everyone’s attention is the resistance zone at around $78.50, just below the August open of $78.59. This area isn’t just another number—it’s a big, flashing “Stop” sign where high liquidity meets past price action. If oil can push past this barrier, it could trigger a shift in momentum, breathing life into the bulls. But for now, $78.50 is the ceiling that keeps bullish dreams in check.

The critical current resistance at $71.50 – bears have got the control as long as price can not cross up the August low

On the flip side, $71.50 is the level that’s holding the bearish party together. Think of it as the last line of defense for the bears. This August low has acted as a solid pivot, bouncing prices back and forth like a game of ping-pong. As long as oil stays below this mark, the bears have the upper hand. If prices start flirting with a break below, brace yourselves—things could get dicey fast.

Potential drop to $66-$67 – the next pit stop

Should oil crack that $71.50 level, all eyes will shift to the $66-$67 range. This area isn’t just a shot in the dark; it’s lined up with historical support, a place where bargain-hunting buyers might step in. But here’s the kicker: if that level doesn’t hold, we’re looking at a deeper slide into uncharted territory.

The light crude oil futures technical tale: patterns and trends

Oil’s chart is telling a story of downward momentum that’s hard to ignore. A descending trendline stretching over two years is shouting out loud and clear: lower highs, steady bearish pressure. Mix that with the usual suspects—global economic jitters, tightening financial conditions—and it’s no wonder the technical landscape is leaning bearish. That said, never say never; a wild card could flip the script.

What to keep on your radar for oil prices and technical junctions

Traders and investors should have their checklists ready:

1. Price action at $71.50: Will this continue to be the the ceiling, or will it break up for much futher upside?

2. Volume watch at resistance: Any breakout above $71.50 and $78.50 may be tested again. The initial breakout up, should it happen, needs to come with volume and conviction. No half-hearted moves here.

3. The bigger picture: Don’t sleep on macroeconomic trends and geopolitical twists—these can shake up oil prices faster than you can say “OPEC.”

The bottom line for my oil price prediction

Right now, the stage is set for a bearish narrative as long as prices stay below that crucial $71.50 level. I am keeping my eye on swing short target of $67 but will flip to bullish if I see 2 consecutive days close above $71.50. Whether you’re trading or investing, keep your eyes wide open and your strategies nimble. This market doesn’t play around, and neither should you.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.