ECB’s Lane: There are still questions surrounding inflation momentum

• That will not resolve immediately, need more than a month
• We won’t know a lot more about services inflation momentum by July
• But every meeting is a live one
• We will have a lot of survey data at the next ECB meeting in July
• If we get welcome surprises on inflation or economy weakens by more than expected, then we can cut rates more quickly

If he’s trying to convince that July is still open for business, this isn’t quite doing the job. But to be fair, they have made it quite clear since the last meeting that there won’t be back-to-back rate cuts. And markets are also well positioned for that. It is now whether or not we will get one in September next. The odds priced in currently are ~70%.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.